Offseason Analysis: Comparing Free Agent Contract to Statistical Production (Wings)

As the offseason slows down, I’m creating visuals to better assess the transactions in relation to player performance and team needs.

In this project, I’m reviewing the 2024 free agent signings in relation to their statistical comparisons to their position group, per Cleaningtheglass.com.

My first writeup broke down Bigs. Now I move on to Wings signed this offseason.

Let’s dive in (if you’ve read the prior article, feel free to skip the “Analysis Explained” and jump to the “Standout Signings”).

Analysis Explained

Position – Wings

Cleaning the Glass breaks down position groups differently than the traditional positions of the NBA. Those are Bigs, Forwards, Wings, Combos and Point. Today, I break down the Wings that signed free agent contracts. “Wings” are defined as players who primarily played the 2023-2024 season as a shooting guard or small forward (or split time between the two).

Stats Used

The stats used are self-explanatory in the visuals. However, I want to clarify they are only for each player’s 2023-2024 season, and a player (who is a Wing) is only used in the comparison if he played at least 600 minutes in the 2023-2024 season. The percentage salary is also for the 2023-2024 season, except for the subject player’s salary, which is for the 2024-2025 season.

I understand this views both the subject player and the compared players in a vacuum. However, I think it is a good starting point to determine whether a player may have been undervalued entering free agency, before considering team needs, team fit, whether an increase/decrease in minutes might affect the player, etc.

Boxplot Explained

Here is a quick breakdown of what each area of the boxplot represents, via Utah State University.

Standout Signings

Initial Takeaway

Before breaking down individual players, I wanted to point out the difficulty in finding undervalued Wings in comparison to the Bigs in my first write-up. With the evolution of the way the NBA is played, I imagine that (i) Wings simply aren’t reaching free agency as often as a serviceable Big and (ii) when they do reach free agency a team is more willing to overpay (or the player isn’t undervalued like a a Big might be when considering these statistics). You can see this simply by the number of minimum contracts (1.48% of the cap) given to Bigs in comparison to minimums given to Wings.

Naji Marshall – 6.10%

I was happy Naji’s visual looked this impressive, because I always enjoyed his game in New Orleans. While his rim percentage is lower than expected, the rest of his midrange game and three-point shooting make up for it. Naji is a solid defender, who shows he can be aggressive-with such a high steal percentage-while keeping his foul percentage low. Not to mention his outstanding defensive rebounding numbers. He should make a great compliment to the higher-profile addition in Dallas, Klay Thompson, while providing what could be some much-needed defensive support.

Simone Fontecchio – 5.47 %

Fontecchio is a player with a higher ceiling than most 28-year-old free agents in the NBA. In Utah, over 60% of Fontecchio’s shots were three-pointers in 2023-2024 while shooting close to 40%. While this graphic only shows his stats for Utah, when he was traded to Detroit mid-season, his eFG increased almost 2% while his rim percentage increased 10%, all while playing 7 more minutes per game after the trade (30.1 MPG in DET). As he gets more comfortable playing a full season in Detroit, I wouldn’t be surprised if Fontecchio becomes a player Detroit can rely on in the future. Let’s not forget this is only his third season in the league.

Nic Batum – 3.32%

Batum rejoins the Clippers on a two-year deal, with the first year taking just 3.32% of the cap. Entering his 17th season, the Clippers know what they are getting from the Veteran. A player who can defend well while providing enough offensive contribution on the floor. Absent his age, which can’t be overlooked, this is a risk-free signing for the Clippers.