Eastern Conference Preseason Predictions

By: Avi Tyagi

Over the offseason, I went back and reevaluated my entire player evaluation process and completely redid my All-NBA awards for the past 8 seasons and All-Star berths for the last 4. Perhaps inspired by the gargantuan tasks of developing my All-Defense teams, I went back through my old lists and revamped them with more available stats and a better understanding of what to look for on film and in the data than I did at the time. Instead of simply focusing on offense and overly skewing the importance of offensive load as I previously have, I dug deeper into the portability and capacity of each individual player as a defender as well. Overall, I was better able to differentiate players to redistribute the awards. With that completed, I constructed this year’s preseason predictions. I included the names of any player on the roster if they were an adjusted All-Star selection for at least one of the last 4 seasons or were on my adjusted All-NBA ballot for any of the last 8 seasons. The “How” and “Why” behind each of those individual selections will be prominent parts of their own pieces. I have also included the overall team finish, a listing of any the bona fide elite prospects from the last 4 drafts that the team may have, and last year’s preseason predictions (where I did not order the teams that I predicted to the miss the playoffs). Additionally, the possible strategic pivots that several teams might choose in order to enter an all-time tank festival (with at least 3 elite prospects alongside the grand prize of a publicized, premium, potential superstar in Wemby) that would further polarize the league standings are also factored in.

1. Celtics
Last Season Preseason Prediction: 7th in East
Last Season Finish: 2nd in East, Beat Nets 4-0 in EC 1st, Beat Bucks 4-3 In EC Semis, Beat Heat 4-3 in ECF, Lost to Warriors 4-3 in The Finals
My All-NBA last 8 seasons: Tatum, Horford, Griffin
My All-Star last 4 seasons: Tatum, Horford, Griffin
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: None
Oh, the Celtics. What to do with you? I loved the Brogdon move. He’s not a dynamite offensive creator, but he’s wonderful at bowling through the defense and providing easy kickouts. He has years of experience in Milwaukee at attacking closeouts and I trust his spot-up 3-point shooting to normalize at around 38%, even if he’s had immense shooting variance on his spot-ups over the last few seasons. I’m not even as concerned as I expected to be about their depth. I liked Justin Jackson’s summer league and preseason. I could see him play a 3-and-D 9th man role to perfection in the regular season. The elephant twins in the room are the coaching change and the big man depth. In theory, Blake Griffin’s defensive strength will be amplified in the Celtics’ system and the surrounding talent will be able to protect his footspeed concerns somewhat. The problem: what does the Celtics defensive system really look like without its architect and one of its 3 foundational pieces? An unproven head coach and the persistent knee injuries for Rob Williams that might be tied to rushed recoveries are red flags. Grant Williams has an easy pathway to earn his second contract. With Al likely to be rested for logical reasons, if Grant can become a Swiss Army knife, stonewall-barrier perimeter defender with friendlier whistles this season, the Celtics may be able to hold on long enough for the roster to get to full health and rampage through the East. And yet, despite all that, I still feel more comfortable penciling them in as 1st in the conference for now. The quality of their depth at the wing spots, the capacity of their switch defenders to take on centers for stretches, and the potential for Grant Williams to adequately deputize for Rob Will for a few months (albeit with a different approach) alleviates my concerns enough for last season’s scorching hot streak to ultimately tip the scales in the Celtics’ favor.

2. 76ers
Last Season Preseason Prediction: 5th in East
Last Season Finish: 4th In East, Beat Raptors 4-2 in EC 1st, lost to Heat 4-2 in EC Semis
My All-NBA last 8 seasons: Embiid, Harden
My All-Star last 4 seasons: Embiid, Harden
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: None
The 76ers get Harden for a full season, are likely to be the beneficiaries of further development from Maxey as a self-creator (he was on the cusp of entering my elite prospects grouping), and built out a solid rotation with the additions of Tucker and Melton. Harrell and House provide solid regular-season depth value as well. The depth and compatibility of this team is still up for debate. Melton is an active defender, but by no means, a stopper. He can be had on closeouts, off-ball actions, and drives in general. With Matisse seemingly out of the rotation entirely, the 76ers might not have a single perimeter stopper. On offense, the potential for stretches of stagnation persist. Seth Curry and JJ Redick are not walking through that door. The roster is composed of reticent shooters or offensive options who primarily dabble in on-ball scoring. There’s no one who even fits the mold of a high-volume spot-up shooter, such as Danny Green. Ultimately, however, as long as Embiid is healthy for most of the regular season (please let it be so), this team feels the most likely pick for the 2 seed out East.

3. Bucks
Last Season Preseason Prediction: 1st in East
Last Season Finish: 3rd in East, Beat Bulls 4-1 in EC 1st, Lost 4-3 to Celtics in EC Semis
My All-NBA last 8 seasons: Giannis, Jrue, Khris
My All-Star last 4 seasons: Giannis, Jrue, Khris, Brook
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: None
In my offseason trades piece, I strongly suggested a trade for the Bucks. That’s where I’m at. Hopefully, a healthy Joe Ingles provides some shooting and bench playmaking in the playoffs. I’m ambivalent about the supporting cast. Giannis and Jrue had their efficiency severely stifled by the Celtics and it was partially driven by the surrounding talent (aside from Middleton) not being built to self-create or attack advantage situations. With Brook Lopez back in the middle, the defense should once again become a top-10 unit in points allowed per 100 possessions. Middleton’s absence will likely dent their start to the season but it’s a testament to how highly I regard the Bucks Big 3 as a collective that I still slot them in as the 3 seed.

4. Heat
Last Season Preseason Prediction: 2nd in East
Last Season Finish: 1st in East, Beat Hawks 4-1 in EC 1st, Beat 76ers 4-2 in EC Semis, Lost 4-3 to Celtics in ECF
My All-NBA last 8 seasons: Jimmy, Lowry, Oladipo
My All-Star last 4 seasons: Jimmy, Bam, Lowry, Oladipo
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: None
The Heat are good. An Oladipo bounce-back could further bolster a deep reserve of guards. I’m just not sure I believe in their long-term outlook of the supporting cast around Butler and Bam. I think the Tucker-shaped hole in the starting lineup might be a bridge too far. They’re a feisty 4 seed for me. Bonus: A potential Nikola Jovic, Jamal Cain, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Ömer Yurtseven bench lineup should be fun.

5. Cavaliers
Last Season Preseason Prediction: Miss Playoffs
Last Season Finish: 8st in East, Lost in Play-In Tournament, Missed Playoffs
My All-NBA last 8 seasons: None
My All-Star last 4 seasons: Mitchell, Jarrett Allen
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: Garland, Mobley
While almost every player on the Cavs has at least one necessary skill to develop that could significantly improve the outlook of the franchise, two players on the roster could immediately improve the current team’s upside with a few substantive changes. First, Mitchell needs to continue improving his perimeter defense. Last year might have actually been an improvement on seasons past, but that says more about the standard. Asking Garland to improve defensively might be a tougher ask in a short period of time. Mitchell came into the league as a strong defensive prospect. For Donovan, it’s about rediscovering some of the tools he once had. Secondly, Okoro needs to become a more decisive offensive player who can consistently crush closeouts. A tighter handle and more decisiveness at the catch could open driving lanes, even on the halfhearted closeouts he’s accustomed to receiving. The last two preseason games were a tantalizing glimpse into that outcome. Slight improvements to his shot and continued growth as a leak-out threat in transition would round out a serviceable offensive package. He would still be somewhat small for a starting wing, but his growth may yet forge a potent starting 5.

6. Nets
Last Season Preseason Prediction: 3rd in East
Last Season Finish: 7st in East, Swept 4-0 by Celtics in EC 1st
My All-NBA last 8 seasons: KD, Kyrie
My All-Star last 4 seasons: KD, Kyrie
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: None
I don’t really want to talk about the Nets. They feel like a misshapen roster with prominent injury concerns and a clear disconnect between the players, front office, and coaching staff. I have them at 6th because most of their rotation feels likely to play far more games than last season. I still have no faith in their defense, the team chemistry appears awful, and the offense still profiles as stagnant. If those statements prove to be incorrect, it’ll be delightful. I’m just not counting on it.

7. Raptors
Last Season Preseason Prediction: 8th in East
Last Season Finish: 5st in East, Lost 4-2 to 76ers in EC 1st
My All-NBA last 8 seasons: None
My All-Star last 4 seasons: VanVleet, Siakam
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: Scottie
The Raptors’ defense is great. Their defensive lineups might be some of the best in the league, with their flexibility and switch-ability creating few real mismatches for opposing offenses. The depth has improved, and Koloko has shown intriguing flashes as a defensive prospect in summer league stints and the preseason. For the Raptors to exceed this range, Scottie will have to make a massive leap. Right now, that feels unrealistic. I like them as a spunky 7 seed.

8. Hawks
Last Season Preseason Prediction: 4th in East
Last Season Finish: 9st in East, Won the 8th seed, Lost 4-1 to the Heat in EC 1st
My All-NBA last 8 seasons: Trae
My All-Star last 4 seasons: Trae
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: None
How will Dejounte and Trae work? On reviewing the film, Trae might be one of the single worst defenders in the league. That must change. Dejounte performed admirably with a heavy offensive load last season, but it was not a shining light of effective offensive self-creation. His on-ball passing has improved, but he’s not particularly incisive and his slashing game might overlap too much with Hunter, Collins, and Capela. The roster fit feels clunky. I anticipate some improvements just because I refuse to believe their transition defense can continue to be as horrendous as it was last season, but the scale of improvements feels marginal rather than transformational. More than almost any other player, I would really like to see Trae willingly shift to being more of a spot-up threat who can demolish closeouts, at the least. If he could develop some level of proficiency as a movement shooter over the course of the season, that could very well be the tide that raises all boats for the Hawks.

9. Wizards
Last Season Preseason Prediction: Miss Playoffs
Last Season Finish: Missed Playoffs
My All-NBA last 8 seasons: None
My All-Star last 4 seasons: Beal, Porzingis
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: None
If the Wizards want to compete for the play-in, their shrewd acquisitions of quality veterans certainly make that possible. I trust their 10-man lineup this season with a full season of Porzingis and the additions of Barton, Morris, and Wright. The caveat: while I could envision a bench lineup filled with many of their recent draft picks, I’m not sure any profile as long-term starters. That affects how I might feel about the long-term viability of this franchise, but, for this season, I would not rule them out as a potential playoff team.

10. Knicks
Last Season Preseason Prediction: Miss Playoffs
Last Season Finish: Missed Playoffs
My All-NBA last 8 seasons: None
My All-Star last 4 seasons: None
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: None
The Knicks have had point guard woes over the past 2 seasons. With Brunson on the roster, and further development from Quentin Grimes, I think those issues will be solved. Ditto most of what I wrote about the Wizards and their young core. The spacing on this team may still be miserable, but I think less Randle and RJ isolation sets or primary ballhandler touches may be a boon for each player and the collective offense as well. It’s a solid roster, with more depth, but less high-end talent than the Wizards, hence why I have them slightly below, but still in the play-in mix.

11. Bulls
Last Season Preseason Prediction: 6th in East
Last Season Finish: 6th in East, Lost 4-1 to Bucks in EC 1st
My All-NBA last 8 seasons: None
My All-Star last 4 seasons: LaVine, DeRozan, Vucevic
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: None
DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine have excellent complementary synergy with one another on the offensive end of the court. I can’t say I have much faith in the aptitude of much of the supporting cast. Caruso and Vucevic are solid while Dalen Terry has flashed in brief cameos. With Lonzo still recovering, I still have the Bulls missing the play-in entirely. Last season, from Christmas onwards, they performed similarly to a 35-win team, and that’s despite some incredible stretches of mid-range dominance by DeRozan. It’s particularly concerning since the Bulls’ first round pick will go to Orlando if it falls outside of the top-4 and LaVine is already starting the season with a knee management program. The only first rounder they can offer for reinforcements is a Portland top-15 protected pick which might not convey for a while. I’m hoping this goes better for the Bulls than I currently anticipate. It doesn’t look particularly inspiring at the moment.

12. Hornets
Last Season Preseason Prediction: Miss Playoffs
Last Season Finish: Missed Playoffs
My All-NBA last 8 seasons: Hayward
My All-Star last 4 seasons: None
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: LaMelo
The 3 best things for The Bugs’ long-term vista would be defensive improvements from LaMelo, an increase in successful forays to the cup by LaMelo, and a top-4 pick next season. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team became deadline sellers to try a quick two-season rebuild.

13. Pistons
Last Season Preseason Prediction: Miss Playoffs
Last Season Finish: Missed Playoffs
My All-NBA last 8 seasons: None
My All-Star last 4 seasons: None
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: Cade
Cade, Ivey, Bey, Bojan, Duren. This could be a league pass delight in the second half of the season. The bench is much improved as well, with Burks, Noel, and Cory Joseph providing a veteran presence around the defensively minded Killian Hayes and Isaiah Stewart. The offensive limitations are still far too apparent for me to label this roster as more than a prime Whittle-for-Wemby candidate.

14. Pacers
Last Season Preseason Prediction: Miss Playoffs
Last Season Finish: 13th in East
My All-NBA Last 8 seasons: None
My All-Star last 4 seasons: None
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: Haliburton, Mathurin
I am really excited to watch the Pacers this season. Haliburton and Mathurin profile as a dynamite combo. Honestly, that’s almost entirely why I’m interested. The roster is slowly being built into a devastating transition attack with their star duo and Isaiah Jackson leading the way.
Hield is showcasing growth as an offensive creator in this environment and meshes well with Duarte and Mathurin as players who can circle around screens in off-ball sets or present spot-up threats for Haliburton drives. However, Myles Turner is almost definitely going to be dealt, and the team defense tumbled all the way to 30th in points per possession allowed after Christmas. To the Wemby sweepstakes we march!

15. Magic
Last Season Preseason Prediction: Miss Playoffs
Last Season Finish: 15th in East
My All-NBA Last 8 seasons: None
My All-Star last 4 seasons: None
My Elite Prospects from 2019-2022 classes: Banchero
The Magic just don’t have enough creators. Paolo might vie for rookie of the year, healthy Fultz is fun, Franz is polished. This roster is still raw. Behind a sneaky solid defense that could transfer over from last season, the Magic could exceed these meager expectations. It’s just a lot of improvement to make all at once for last year’s EC 15th seed.