Offseason Analysis: Comparing Free Agent Contract to Statistical Production (Forwards)

As the offseason slows down, I’m creating visuals to better assess the transactions in relation to player performance and team needs.

In this project, I’m reviewing the 2024 free agent signings in relation to their statistical comparisons to their position group, per Cleaningtheglass.com.

My prior writeups broke down the Bigs and broke down the Wings. Now I move on to Forwards signed this offseason.

Let’s dive in (if you’ve read the prior article, feel free to skip the “Analysis Explained” and jump to the “Standout Signings”).

Analysis Explained

Position – Forwards

Cleaning the Glass breaks down position groups differently than the traditional positions of the NBA. Those are Bigs, Forwards, Wings, Combos and Point. Today, I break down the Forwards that signed free agent contracts. “Forwards” are defined as players who played the 2023-2024 season splitting time between Small Forward and Power Forward.

Stats Used

The stats used are self-explanatory in the visuals. However, I want to clarify they are only for each player’s 2023-2024 season, and a player (who is a Forward) is only used in the comparison if he played at least 600 minutes in the 2023-2024 season. The percentage salary is also for the 2023-2024 season, except for the subject player’s salary, which is for the 2024-2025 season.

I understand this views both the subject player and the compared players in a vacuum. However, I think it is a good starting point to determine whether a player may have been undervalued entering free agency, before considering team needs, team fit, whether an increase/decrease in minutes might affect the player, etc.

Boxplot Explained

Here is a quick breakdown of what each area of the boxplot represents, via Utah State University.

Standout Signings

Initial Takeaway

The Forward category is where you’ll find the biggest free agent signings in the offseason: Paul George to Philadelphia and LeBron James resigning with Los Angeles. The downside of a snapshot visual of percentages, as briefly stated above, is that players like George and James can come across as overpaid because their salary percentage will always be an outlier while their statistical percentages can never compare, even if outperforming their position group. Again, that is why these visuals are merely snapshots as a starting point before diving deeper into a player’s statistics, film and contract status.

On the other hand, these visuals are an excellent starting point to see if a team truly got a discount on a free agent.

Haywood Highsmith – 3.70%

I’m not certain if the rest of the NBA fell asleep on Highsmith or Coach Spoelstra brainwashed Highsmith to stay in Miami on a discount. Last season, Highsmith found a stable role with the Heat, playing in 65 games at 20 MPG, to find almost all his statistical categories increase from the prior season. While known for his defense, Highsmith is a 6’7″ Forward who takes the majority of his shots from behind the arc where he shot 39% last season. Other than his offense at the rim, his numbers outperform the majority of Forwards, while coming in at just 3.7% of the cap. Let’s also not forget that while Highsmith is 27, he hadn’t played more than 12 games until two seasons ago. So there’s still room to improve his game. Highsmith’s contract could come as the biggest bargain of the offseason.

Derrick Jones, Jr. – 6.77%

Praised for his contributions for a finals run with Dallas last season, Jones, Jr. established himself as a reliable role player both in the Regular Season and in meaningful games deep in the playoffs. While some might look at his production as a one-season outlier, the Clippers were able to still sign him on short money in relation to his production on the court. The visual below only shows his Regular Season statistics, which still show a player who can be a reliable rotation player on a good roster. Coming in at 6.77% of the cap-and locking him up for three years through his age 29 season-seems like a win in an offseason that has been tumultuous for the Clippers.

Kelly Oubre Jr. – 5.68%

Darryl Morey delivered on bringing a big-name free agent to Philadelphia when signing Paul George this offseason, but he also did an excellent job filling in the depth on the roster as well. One of those moves was resigning Kelly Oubre, Jr. While Oubre, Jr. may not be an offensive juggernaut, his defense and rebounding (6 REB per 36 min.) are welcomed on a team already filled with offensive weapons. Oubre, Jr.’s foul percentage is the outlier he’ll look to temper (though it’s been consistently high his entire career). At just 5.68% of the cap on a one plus one for the 28-year-old veteran, he’s a risk-free depth piece for Philadelphia.