Offseason Analysis: Comparing Free Agent Contract to Statistical Production (Bigs)

As the offseason slows down, I’m creating visuals to better assess the transactions in relation to player performance and team needs.

In this project, I’m reviewing the 2024 free agent signings in relation to their statistical comparisons to their position group, per Cleaningtheglass.com. My first writeup breaks down the free agent Bigs.

(update – Second article on Wings can be read here)

Let’s dive in.

Analysis Explained

Position – Bigs

Cleaning the Glass breaks down position groups differently than the traditional positions of the NBA. Those are Bigs, Forwards, Wings, Combos and Point. Today, we breaks down the Bigs that signed free agent contracts. “Bigs” are defined as players who primarily played the 2023-2024 season as a power forward or center (or split time between the two).

Stats Used

The stats used are self-explanatory in the visuals. However, I want to clarify they are only for each player’s 2023-2024 season, and a player (who is a Big) is only used in the comparison if he played at least 600 minutes in the 2023-2024 season. The percentage salary is also for the 2023-2024 season, except for the subject player’s salary, which is for the 2024-2025 season.

I understand this views both the subject player and the compared players in a vacuum. However, I think it is a good starting point to determine whether a player may have been undervalued entering free agency, before considering team needs, team fit, whether an increase/decrease in minutes might affect the player, etc.

Boxplot Explained

Here is a quick breakdown of what each area of the boxplot represents, via Utah State University.

Standout Signings

Jalen Smith – 6.10%

For big-men signings, Jalen Smith might be the consensus top-pick among media members for best value-add signing this offseason. The more you dig into his visuals below and the circumstances around his contract you can only get more excited about this contract. Smith shot above the 75th percentile for every category of offense. His rebounding percentages are also right at the 75th percentile. For his defense, he could improve his fouling consistency and block rate. Smith’s minutes weren’t miniscule, but he was a bench player at 17 MPG.

At just 24-years-old, Smith could still improve his defensive game, but his offensive numbers are encouraging. At 6.1% of the salary cap (which will likely continue to decline over the following two seasons of the contract), the Bulls have a low-risk, high-reward player in Smith.

Drew Eubanks – 3.56%

Eubanks heads to Utah in role that seems to fit perfectly on a young team. Eubanks will provide stability in a front-court filled with players entering their first or second season. He won’t be a player to light it up offensively, but paying him just 3.5% of the cap, Utah acquires a dependable center that can absorb some of the minutes from the young centers (Kessler/Filipowski) while providing sufficient contributions in offense, defense and rebounding.

Note – Don’t get too excited about his 3-Pt. Percentage. He did shoot 100%, but it was only 3/3.

James Wiseman – 1.59%

This is a signing that goes under the radar and may not pan out in the end. However, I love the signing as potential for a high ceiling as Wiseman takes just 1.59% of the cap in a non-guaranteed contract with a team option in the second season. Wiseman is still just 23-years-old and has never been able to find his footing, both with a heavily talented Warriors team and then with a transitioning Pistons team that was crowded in the front-court. While he’ll still be fighting for minutes to prove his worth, he showed he can rebound and produce at the rim on the offensive and defensive ends of the floor in the limited minutes he had for Detroit (16 MPG).

Nic Claxton – 19.60%

Not many Bigs get paid close to 20% of the cap in today’s NBA, but when looking at Claxton’s numbers you can see why. For a player that’s playing much bigger minutes (29 MPG) than the players mentioned above, Claxton produced on both the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. His block rate is one of the best in the league while also having one of the lower foul percentages-a rare combination. On the offensive side, you see that he can bring a mid-range game, while his scoring at the rim set him toward the 75th percentile in the league. Claxton is just entering his prime and is already producing efficient numbers while playing significant minutes.