Offseason Analysis: Comparing Free Agent Contract to Statistical Production (Guards)

As the offseason slows down, I’m creating visuals to better assess the transactions in relation to player performance and team needs.

In this project, I’m reviewing the 2024 free agent signings in relation to their statistical comparisons to their position group, per Cleaningtheglass.com.

This article breaks down the free agent Guards. I’ve already broken down the Bigs, Forwards and Wings in prior articles.

Let’s dive in (if you’ve read the prior article, feel free to skip the “Analysis Explained” and jump to the “Standout Signings”).

Analysis Explained

Position – Guards

Cleaning the Glass breaks down position groups differently than the traditional positions of the NBA. Those are Bigs, Forwards, Wings, Combos and Point. Today, I break down the Guards that signed free agent contracts, which combines the Combos and the Point. A “Point” is someone that primarily plays Point Guard and a “Combo” is someone who splits time between Point Guard and Shooting Guard.

Stats Used

The stats used are self-explanatory in the visuals. However, I want to clarify they are only for each player’s 2023-2024 season, and a player (who is a Guard) is only used in the comparison if he played at least 600 minutes in the 2023-2024 season. The percentage salary is also for the 2023-2024 season, except for the subject player’s salary, which is for the 2024-2025 season.

I understand this views both the subject player and the compared players in a vacuum. However, I think it is a good starting point to determine whether a player may have been undervalued entering free agency, before considering team needs, team fit, whether an increase/decrease in minutes might affect the player, etc.

Boxplot Explained

Here is a quick breakdown of what each area of the boxplot represents, via Utah State University.

Standout Signings

Chris Paul – 7.44%

Chris Paul joins a young San Antonio team lacking a veteran presence and steady play at the point guard position. While he starts the 2024-2025 season at age 39, his contract is only for one season at just 7.44% of the Salary Cap. San Antonio will look for production similar to the visual below, while Paul also provides leadership to a young team and can split minutes with Tre Jones at the point position as Jones continues to develop his game.

Tyus Jones – 1.48%

Tyus Jones was one of the free agents this seasons the majority of the public were surprised only signed for the minimum. It’s hard to say if Jones left money on the table to play for a contender, but Phoenix landed a reliable point guard for just 1.48% of the Salary Cap. The point guard position was a role Phoenix needed to fill based on last year’s production. The visual below shows a player outperforming the minimum salary, while Jones also ranked at least in the 84th percentile in assist percentage in turnover percentage in the past three seasons: great statistics for a player looking to facilitate to Phoenix’s three playmakers.

Luke Kennard – 6.58%

Memphis opted out of a $14.7 million Team Option for Kennard, allowing him to enter free agency. They were then able to sign him using bird rights at a lesser $9.25 million salary. This allowed them to stay under the luxury tax threshold while filling a need for perimeter shooting. Kennard fills a specific need for a Memphis team that has shot in the bottom third in the league in three-point percentage and effective field goal percentage the last two seasons. The team was riddled with injuries last year, so it was difficult to see how Kennard could help space the floor for Ja Morant and add another shooting threat to Desmond Bane. Hopefully, this season he will have a full season to do so after only having a short time with Morant and Bane after being acquired via trade during the 2022-2023 season.