By Avi Tyagi
Welcome to the NTC season preview series! Over the next several weeks, we will attempt to bring you the most in-depth analysis possible about all 30 teams in both written and podcast formats leading up to the tip-off of the 2024-25 NBA season. We have split the segments up by division, so we will provide previews for five teams per week for a total of six weeks. Within each team preview, you will find a short recap of how they finished their 2023-24 seasons, key players to watch, what their goals for next season might be, and more. We hope you enjoy the ride. Feel free to contact us with any questions or comments you may have! With that being said, let’s get to it.
Previous Division: Atlantic Division
Coming Next: Southeast Division
After sharing my projected eastern conference standings on our Substack last season, it’s time to head back home to the main site and to the west. My local stomping grounds and a region of the country I’m more familiar with, the Best-ern conference can be a hidden gem for other parts of the country and with the Pac-12 no longer what it once was, there’s more time than ever to watch the Pac-5 After Dark. No other division in the league possessed anywhere near the same depth of quality last season. The Dubs finished last in the division with 46 wins. The next closest last place team? The Raptors in the Atlantic with a meager 25 wins. The most expensive division in the league continues to rack up a large tax bill, courtesy of the All-In Suns. However, the rest of the division isn’t too far behind. All 5 have committed at least 168 million in cash spending and only the Kings are barely short of the first apron. For one reason or another, all 5 of these southwestern juggernauts feel pressure to win now.
LA Clippers
2023-24 ranks:
Offensive Rating – 4th (118.8)
Defensive Rating – 18th (115.4)
Net Rating – 7th (+3.4)
Weighted Age – 1st (30.4)
The bottom line: Paul George is gone and the team has never been more reliant on Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi has played 298 regular season games over 7 seasons (which averages to around 40 games a season). He’s also been too hurt to finish the postseason for the Clippers in 4 consecutive years. Every primary rotation member is 27 or older. This is an old, slow, rickety team without the (relatively) pacy punch of Westbrook or PG. Without two of their 4 best players on the break, their fast break threat has dwindled and there’s a chance this offense falls into a predictable and static pattern with a Kawhi-Harden oriented attack. For as much as I would love to start by analyzing the new additions such as Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., and Nic Batum, everything comes down to Kawhi and Harden — two of the most enigmatic superstars of any sport in the post-analytics world. There’s a solid possibility Kawhi is injured again and Harden demands a trade or can’t sustain the offense like he used to without compromising their defense and eventually demanding a trade at the deadline.
Now for some good news: This team still has a chance to be pretty good. Harden was ludicrously efficient in his smaller role (61% true shooting with fewer short mid-rangers and more assisted 3s than he’s had in years). Having conserved more energy, Harden also played his best defense since scorching the league in 2018. For the first half of the season, he didn’t simply concede the switch and actually shuffled his feet defensively to keep up with offensive players. He received less help on the perimeter than past seasons and maintained a higher general rate of activity than most comparable heliocentric engines like Trae or Doncic ever have. He averaged 1.7 steals and 1.3 blocks per 100 possessions leading into the all star break with his highest average speed defensively since the aforementioned 2017-18 MVP season.
Of course, since Harden just makes himself so difficult to celebrate, it all fell off in the second half of the season and lethargy and complacency on defense kicked in once again. With the Clippers trending towards safely being in the playoffs, Harden took his foot completely off the gas defensively. The Clippers had a 112.8 defensive rating with Harden on the court before the All Star break. If that were a teamwide rating, it would have ranked 4th in the league at the time. Post-All Star break, the Clippers defensive rating with Harden was a whopping 120.2. It was the 2nd worst figure of anyone to play in more than 20 games and not on a tanking team like Charlotte, Toronto, or Utah. Only Torrey Craig’s rating was worse among a pool of approximately 200 players. Harden’s box score contributions fell off (1.2 steals and 0.8 blocks per 100 possessions) and his defensive intensity plummeted as captured by clips such as this:
or this:
This team will not be making any noise in the playoffs if this is the effort Harden provides. I’m not worried at all about his offense. With the additions they’ve made, I think Harden can tap into some of his Rockets’ days in a way he hasn’t been able to since the Rockets first traded for Westbrook. Last season in around 400 minutes without Kawhi and PG, he averaged 33 points per 100 possessions and 63% true shooting (without hot 3pt shooting to skew the numbers). With them, he averaged 22 points per 100 on slightly worse true shooting figures. Scaling up to go back to heliocentric ball is not tough for Harden, especially when you equip him with quality shooting and solid defenders in the supporting cast. I expect him to make the All Star game this season and be a face of the franchise for their first couple months in the Intuit dome. Ty Lue’s mission will be to ensure Harden’s campaign can also maintain a certain standard defensively. Quick attacking threats like Tyrese Maxey or Coby White feasted on his foot speed last season and that is to be expected. Harden needs to help himself by staying in a proper defensive stance instead of flat footed on his heels and lunging at any drives.
No more of this:
To the new additions. Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Nic Batum, and Mo Bamba may not compel anyone to sing from the rooftops, but they are the sort of savvy additions a team makes when they’re trying to remain in contention to win a playoff series in a deep conference with a brand new stadium. You won’t be able to replace Paul George’s contributions, but the goal can be to replace the aggregate regular season value of the subtractions with their new additions. Kris Dunn is a capable 3 point shooter and good defender (a tad foul prone) who would have started for Utah last season if they had prioritized winning over development (Keyonte was a rough watch in the aggregate). He’s not a perimeter shot maker but that’s fine if he’s playing alongside Kawhi and Harden. His calling card is that he takes nothing off the table. Derrick Jones’ 3 point shooting and lack of offensive creation can get exposed in a playoff setting but he can masquerade as a starting wing in the regular season. Last season, Jones took a big step defensively by becoming more defensively disciplined and cutting out many of the fouling issues that could otherwise limit his minutes. He used to average 5 fouls per 100 possessions in his career before Dallas. Last season, that was down to 3.3 per 100. That makes a massive difference when you’re playing a starter’s minute total and Jones will be expected to take on tougher perimeter matchups to try to compensate for some of the splash plays PG used to provide on defense as a big win. We Know what Batum is and it’s not great to have to rely on his defensive playmaking and feel as a secondary passer in his age 36 season, but it would be massive if he could soak up most of the Amir Coffey/PJ Tucker minutes from last season. Last but not least, Mo Bamba finally offers Ty Lue a different look at backup center. Daniel Theis and Mason Plumlee offered diet versions of Zubac’s game but were not scheme versatile enough on either side of the ball. Bamba offers Lue a different option. He’s foul prone, not particularly agile on defense, and a suspect free throw shooter. However, he’s also a career 36% 3pt shooter and a more natural vertical shot blocker than either Theis or Plumlee. Bamba has never had the opportunity to play with a perimeter shot creator and passer like Harden. Plumlee and Theis weren’t prized commodities headed into free agency before they revamped their value in the Clipper ecosystem. I expect Bamba to gain that same edge while bringing more consistent flashes of the high upside talent that led to his status as a viable top-10 draft pick.
Side note: PG was also their best option for clutch scoring last season and it might not be wise to place more of that burden on Kawhi or Harden, but c’est la vie. PG often faced easier defensive matchups than his two star counterparts and feeding him the ball with a mismatch either directly in isolation or off the catch proved to be an effective strategy. I expect their clutch shot making ability to deteriorate so Ty Lue will have to compensate by emphasizing more movement in the crunch-time offense and keeping Harden from getting too shot-happy.
Second side note: Jordan Miller is on a two-way but was the breakout star of Summer League and could have easily claimed MVP status. On a team with almost no young contributors to speak of, it would be wonderful if he forced his way onto the roster and into the rotation ahead of Amir Coffey and former first rounder Kobe Brown.
Ultimately, the Clippers have some wide tail outcomes. It’s possible that the team that went 28-7 from the start of December until the All Star break with a +9.1 Cleaning the Glass net rating is able to rebound from the loss of Paul George due to a deep roster of plus contributors and still finishes with a top 4 record in the conference. It’s also possible Harden and Kawhi yield to injuries in their mid 30s and the hapless Clippers fall out of the play-in picture in a competitive conference. My baseline expectations for this group would be a top 8 finish but anything is possible with Inglewood’s newest residents.
Phoenix Suns
2023-24 ranks:
Offensive Rating – 9th (117.6)
Defensive Rating – 13th (114.6)
Net Rating – 9th (+3.0)
Weighted Age – 3rd (29.3)
Another old team in a conference chalk full of ‘em. The 2024-25 iteration makes more sense together than its predecessor ever did. Frank Vogel’s offense often acquiesced to stagnation and an imperfect use of their 3 best players offensively. Beal, Allen, and Booker all overlapped and the lack of a point guard was a real problem. Until they made a trade for Royce O’Neale, their wing depth was severely compromised behind the oft-injured Bradley Beal. The best lineups provided glimpses of hope for the potential of this team but the end product was lacking. Their lack of point guard, inability to generate quality rim attempts, and old, creaky defense caused them to cave in and be swept in the first round. Gone are the Eric Gordon – Drew Eubanks – Jordan Goodwin – Keita Bates-Diop minutes. Eric Gordon was too redundant with their best players and has been a below average defender at his position for at least the last 6 seasons. The other 3 were just far too limited offensively to hold up in a playoff setting. Enter Tyus Jones, Monte Morris, Mason Plumlee, and a full season of Royce O’Neale. While it still remains suboptimal, Royce O’Neale can masquerade as a top-of-the-bench-rotation power forward far better than Keita Bates-Diop and provides consistent 3 and D play for a roster sorely in need of it. Over his career, Royce is a high volume catch and shoot 3 point threat who shoots 40% from the corner. That’s the exact archetype Mike Budenholzer would search for for his offense. Mason Plumlee offers a better feel as a passer than Eubanks and can more aptly replace Nurkic’s skill set when called upon. He offers better vertical finishing than Nurkic, which might not seem all that important but, when paired with a true point guard, could be a game changer for generating paint touches.
Speaking of point guards, the Suns have two of them now. Tyus Jones is the better defender of the duo, Monte the superior shooter, but ultimately these are two relatively interchangeable guards. These two pass-first, game managing point guards can play on or off-ball as needed and are best at simply keeping the rock moving. Adding both ensures Phoenix can have 48 minutes of competent quarterbacking and take the burden of setting up the offense off of Devin Booker’s plate. While having to play the 1 was beneficial for Booker’s long term development as a primary scoring guard and key decision maker, it’s not beneficial for an offense to become dependent on it and take away from what he does best. Booker at his best has the green light to attack in transition and set up his defender with his off ball movement to create separation for easier looks. Plus, while Booker does defend valiantly, having to run an offense and to defend has proven to be too much for him. He’s not the most athletic guard either so he can be beaten sheerly through physical attributes, even if his fundamentals tend to be sound. Due to his lack of athletic tools, he tends to foul more often than other guards at his position and doesn’t have the sort of dexterity required to swipe at the ball to generate deflections. In a Budenholzer offense, I can see Booker running some of Kyle Korver’s pet plays, like quick pindowns for top of the key 3s, or Fist Up actions that culminate in secondary DHO plays for Booker at the top of the arc and either Plumlee or Nurkic to play off. Both centers can make quick reads so there’s some real versatility of attack. If Coach Budenholzer’s sets can generate quick perimeter shots for Booker and Beal, it could also help alter the Suns’ shot profile. The Celtics and Suns take almost the exact same percentage of rim attempts in their shot diets. The Celtics also attempt a league leading 47% of their shots from 3 and only 21% from midrange, compared to 37% from 3 and a league leading 31% on middys. Just shifting the shot diet somewhat will make a big difference.
The issues with this team reside on defense and adding two small point guards probably won’t change that. Budenholzer ultimately was hired to take this roster from 9th in offense to somewhere in the top 5, with the hope that a full season of O’Neale and the addition of Plumlee can help stabilize small bench units. And as awful as it is to mention, Kevin Durant is in his age-36 season and last year was the first healthy season he’d had in 5 years. If he were to go down, the Suns would lose their only true power forward, with no real replacements on deck. The offense might be able to suffice for a time being, but the defense in small immobile lineups with a drop center and Beal and O’Neale in the wing spots would fall apart. This is still a tactically rigid group that should expect to finish top 6 in the conference but probably not to win a first round series. Considering the luxury tax leviathan staring them down, it’s possible this is their only one real shot with KD and Booker before they have to finagle a way out of this roster setup. Other than maybe Denver or the Lakers, no team has the sort of dramatic potential that the Phoenix Suns do. They’re a must watch.
Golden State Warriors
2023-24 ranks:
Offensive Rating – 8th (117.8)
Defensive Rating – 15th (115.2)
Net Rating – 11th (+2.6)
Weighted Age – 5th (28.4)
I’ll start right off the bat. I think the Warriors gained more current talent than they lost over the offseason. I also am a little concerned at how they’ll use their depth. Steve Kerr prefers a simple 10 man regular season rotation with a few backups on deck who he trusts wholeheartedly should they need to play, but whom he won’t go to as primary members of their rotation. Ideally he likes a clear set of starters and a group of 5 backups who can each fill the role of understudy. This season, I think he might want to find a solid minutes’ share for all 14 members of the roster. I’m not sure how he’ll handle such uncertainty, especially if they outplay the starters during any given stretch. Steph is aging but still Steph, Draymond is a plus starter. Everything else is more unsettled. Wiggins has been off for several seasons now, be it due to injury or because his heart and mind have been preoccupied elsewhere due to caring for his family. Last season, he showed less bounce as a finisher and often played lethargically on defense. You would hope for his sake and for his teammates that he’d be able to lock in again and bring back the intensity he had in the first half of 2021-22 at least. Finding a second starting guard next to Steph is also tough. Last season was the first time Klay felt truly “washed”. Even after starting slowly early in the 2022-23 season after a relatively light offseason, Klay was able to find his attack as his legs got under him in January of 2023. This season, that just wasn’t the case. He moved slower than ever defensively and couldn’t meet the threshold of burst needed to be a 3-level scorer anymore and to rebound well enough to help contribute as a small forward anymore. He only took 2.8 shots within the paint last season, down from 3.9 the season prior. That small gap might not seem like a lot but it meaningfully reflects the limitations Klay had in his attack anymore. He famously is not known for dribbling into shots but he had enough bounce to attack as a cutter or put rim pressure if he ever did attack the hoop from the elbows or when attacking a closeout. Not anymore. Chris Paul continued a second straight season of decline, driven by an increased difficulty in playing off other on ball stars at this age and a greater difficulty at getting and converting clean shots in the short midrange. It was time to move on from both and the 3 replacements they received or signed in their place are promising. De’Anthony Melton is limited as an offensive shot creator or scoring threat within the arc but shoots 40% on corner 3s and can fire open, assisted shots from the perimeter on solid volume. Kyle Anderson is a nice backup 4 who can play small ball 5 if required and fills the Nemanja Bjelica role they’ve never quite filled since. Anderson’s defensive agility and secondary passing will also make him a great backup for Draymond should the 34-year-old be injured once more. Buddy Hield steps in to be a smaller, more explosive version of the current Klay. He’s not a great defender and he’s far more inconsistent and selective with his jumper than prime Klay, but he can replicate and even exceed Klay’s current performance. In an offense dedicated to generating movement and open 3s, Hield will feast. Defensively, he played the best defense of his career under Carlisle in Indy and the hope for Kerr will be that Hield will maintain focus and discipline when the staff expects a certain level of defensive activity to earn minutes. I think Hield will ultimately start from the bench because Steph and Hield as a backcourt feels too flammable, but it’s possible he could earn a starting spot if his shot cooks and he defends screening actions and in mismatch situations well enough to maintain an acceptable defensive floor.
Big picture, Golden State’s biggest concern is finding a ceiling outcome. They have 10-12 good players, but only 1 great one. Even with an improved roster, maybe they finish first in the division but it’s hard to see them bypassing the OKC or Minnesota without injuries. To achieve any sort of ceiling, they need Brandin Podziemski to take the next step. Kuminga’s jump shot and passing feel might still limit his ability to become a starting small forward and Moses Moody exists in a perennial fight against the back end of the roster to earn a clear bench role, even if he’s a solid player. Podziemski is their best bet to find a second star. With Chris Paul off the roster, Brandin has more freedom to run the show with the second unit. I believe in it. You just almost never find a scrawny 20-year old rookie guard who can be a plus contributor on an above average team from game 1. Most rookie guards put up big stat lines on bad teams due to incredibly porous defense and inefficient shotmaking (see Keyonte George, Coby White, De’Aaron Fox etc.) Even an older prospect with years of experience like Jalen Brunson didn’t cement himself as a plus player until year 3 in the league. I truly believe Podziemski is special and if this team wants to enjoy a top 4 finish, it is imperative that he becomes a mainstay in their closing lineup. Last year, in the 3rd quarter of the play-in game against the Kings, with the scoreline prompting desperation, the Warriors turned to Steph – Klay – Wiggins – Kuminga – Draymond lineups to save their season. This year, irrespective of how the wing spots are settled, Podziemski must become closing caliber. The best case outcome for the long term outlook of this franchise is that Steph – Brandin – Moody – Kuminga – Draymond becomes a top notch finishing lineup. This season is the ultimate stress test for the dynamic between the current and next generation. The older guard has finally ceded an opportunity to the youngsters. Will they be ready to take it? We’ll find out.
Sacramento Kings
2023-24 ranks:
Offensive Rating – 14th (116.9)
Defensive Rating – 14th (115.2)
Net Rating – 17th (+1.7)
Weighted Age – 14th (26.4)
We know what the Kings are now. Keon Ellis broke out and has solidified himself as the go-to starting guard alongside Fox. Keegan Murray, Sabonis, Fox, Monk, Huerter, we know what they all are in this ecosystem. There are two major additions that change the complexion of this roster. The first is switching Harrison Barnes out with DeMar DeRozan. Barnes has been on a downturn for two straight seasons, as he’s slowly been phased out of the offense and not been able to capitalize in the paint on easier mismatches in quite the same way as he could in his prime. He’s shot 41% on corner 3s over the past 2 seasons on a healthy 3 corner 3s per 100 possessions, so it’s not like his offense hasn’t been a net positive. On the whole, Barnes is still an effective and efficient shot finisher, with true shooting percentage figures above 60% for 4 straight seasons. But for this team to take the next step, his role became supplemental rather than foundational. In 2021-22, Barnes averaged 8.1 drives a game; last season, he was down to 4.6 drives. Another team with fewer high level shot creators (such as his new home in San Antonio), might find more use for his current skill set. DeMar DeRozan might be a similar caliber of defender, but on offense, he represents a 180 degree shift for the Kings offense.
DeMar represents the other side of the coin for offensive shot creation from the power forward position. He lingers near the elbows ready to receive the pass, and can decisively find space between a thicket of defenders to get his shot off or to pump fake and draw fouls. If teams run actions for him and allow him to masquerade as primary ball handler in certain configurations, DeMar has gained the abilities to be a pick and roll playmaker and offensive lubricant who keeps an offense churning. I’m not certain what his fit will be with Sacramento but my guess is they’ll play him off of Fox or Sabonis with Keon Ellis securely in the starting lineup. Keon is a perfect complement to DeMar because of how many mistakes he can cover up as a primary perimeter defender, because of his ability to space the floor when DeMar and Sabonis aren’t, and because he won’t demand a large volume of offensive touches. That means more time and more of the ball for DeMar to work with when he’s in lineups with Fox and Sabonis. I expect DeMar to get accustomed to the cutting Mike Brown will ask from him and make adaptations to his game the way he once did in his Spurs’ days. It has the potential for a fun fit, but it’s an uncertain one.
The other addition the Kings made was Devin Carter. He’s a fantastic prospect who I had as a top 3 player in this class. l think he’s an athletic player who could capably become above average at almost every skill you could ask of him. His father, Anthony Carter, played in the league for years and is regarded as an influence on the development of GG Jackson and Max Strus. Carter’s jumper is still a work in progress, but it’s actually solid, just not spectacular. He can launch 3s very comfortably, I just think he can smoothen his shot out to neglect a current hitch and he’ll be great from there. I wouldn’t call him a creative shotmaker but he’s such a menace defensively and such a sharp player running actions that I could see him provide positive bench play at the wings even in his rookie season. He’s out with shoulder surgery and probably won’t be back and in rhythm till after the All Star break, but for a team with an abyss at backup small forward in years past, he could prove to be a major difference come playoff time. Whatever the ceiling is for Sacramento over the next few seasons, I view Devin Carter as a key piece to discovering it. For now, I have them penciled into a play-in spot.
Los Angeles Lakers
2023-24 ranks:
Offensive Rating – 15th (115.9)
Defensive Rating – 16th (115.3)
Net Rating – 19th (+0.6)
Weighted Age – 8th (28.0)
This Lakers team isn’t getting any younger and they’re perhaps the simplest team to write about. Their starting lineup had a +6.6 net rating, which is fine but not particularly special in this fantastically tough conference. Their bench is barely held together by castoffs from other teams and they lost Taurean Prince for the right to overpay Max Christie. Their main addition is an older rookie shooting guard prospect and their rookie head coach has never been part of an NBA coaching staff. The LakeShow will finally have access to their cornucopia of 1sts, but it’s too early to speculate what will even be available at the trade deadline. This team just seems destined to be in the play-in, which is a shame in LeBron’s age-40 season, but it’s the Lakers so I’m sure intrigue and drama will help drive conversation around them all season. They’re the team with the most desperation to act now, should a star become available at the deadline.
For a long term outlook, this team lacks the sort of speculative young talent that might immediately raise their ceiling, but their 3 most likely bets are Dalton Knecht, Christian Koloko, and Bronny James. I like Dalton Knecht as a shotmaker and his athleticism against SEC opponents popped off the tape, but questions about his shotmaking, passing feel, and ball handling make me wonder what his ceiling truly is. As an older fully developed player, maybe one of his best outcomes is to be an uber-athletic Max Strus (a positive defender at the small forward position who’s savvy enough offensively for the team to start him despite somewhat streaky shooting and despite not being a primary ball handler type). The difference: Strus’ feel as a secondary passer is far further developed than where Knecht is now. How much promise will Knecht show on day 1 for his former shooting guard head coach? The Lakers lack shooters. For most teams, losing Taurean Prince as a spacer might not matter. Vanderbilt, Reddish, and Vincent all each shoot under 34% from 3. Max Christie is primarily only effective as a stationary corner shooter. Knecht is their one bench threat who can credibly run some of JJ’s favorites sets from his playing days. At center, Christian Koloko is signed to a two-way now that he’s been cleared by the league to play once more. The Lakers’ center rotation has been underwhelming but Koloko represents their best bid to change that. He’s a solid drop defender, but he was foul prone and offered almost nothing offensively as a rookie. At the time, he lacked the strength to finish against contact or elevate at the NBA level. If he’s grown stronger in his time off and can return without being particularly rusty, the Lakers would love to have a true backup center that they trust in a play-in or playoff setting. Last but definitely not least, there’s Bronny James. I hope he gets to spend most of his time in the G League, but he’s somehow only an injury or two away from being a key bench player in the regular season. Between Maxwell Lewis, Max Christie, and Bronny James, someone will grab a regular season role and I think it’s entirely possible the Lakers give Bronny James some developmental minutes after a short stint in college with limited minutes played. The dearth of depth and young talent on this bench is shockingly lacking in a league with so much young talent. It looks particularly poor when you consider that they once had Scotty Pippen Jr. in their building for a two-way and on their G League. Whoops!
It sounds as though the Lakers bore me, but that isn’t true at all. I’m extremely curious to see what ideas JJ pulls from to maximize players like Austin Reaves or Dalton Knecht. Gabe Vincent, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Cam Reddish get a chance to build a redemption arc, after injured, poorer seasons. LeBron is a spectacle and athletic inspiration for any audience and I’m curious to see how he continues to evolve his perimeter scoring game this season. Anthony Davis easily could have won DPOY last season and I enjoy watching him swat shots with his pterodactyl-esque wingspan. I just can’t count on any of them in terms of expectations. The defensive backcourt is too frail for high level competition and Dalton Knecht might not be the highly accurate targetman needed to elevate bench units. They’re fine, but just a mystery box at the moment where the prize might not be that spectacular. Their first 10 games will be extremely intriguing, if only to get a sense of where this offense might be headed stylistically.
