Welcome to the NTC season preview series! Over the next several weeks, we will attempt to bring you the most in-depth analysis possible about all 30 teams in both written and podcast formats leading up to the tip-off of the 2024-25 NBA season. We have split the segments up by division, so we will provide previews for five teams per week for a total of six weeks. Within each team preview, you will find a short recap of how they finished their 2023-24 seasons, key players to watch, what their goals for next season might be, and more. We hope you enjoy the ride. Feel free to contact us with any questions or comments you may have! With that being said, let’s get to it.
Previous Division: Pacific
Next Division: Southwest
Atlanta Hawks
2023-24 ranks:
Offense – 12th (117.2)
Defense – 27th (119.4)
Net Rating – 21st (-2.2)
Weighted Age – 16th (26.2)
The Atlanta Hawks finished ten games under .500 last season to cap off what was yet another uninspiring season with the Trae Young and Dejounte Murray backcourt. Familiar problems plagued them as getting stops on the defensive end once again proved to be an idea that could not be fulfilled in reality. Following an epic run to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals, this franchise was primed to challenge for the throne for years to come, but instead, backslid to two consecutive play-in appearances without a formal playoff showing to show for them. The defense was an issue even with Dejounte Murray. In year one with the former Spurs guard, they finished 22nd in defensive efficiency. Last season, it was even more brutal, falling to an abysmal 27th out of 30 teams. That absolutely will not get it done, even in the “inferior” Eastern Conference. It was apparent that the Young/Murray duo was a suboptimal fit, as Trae Young is one of the most ball dominant players in the league, regularly finishing with a usage rate above 34%, per Cleaning the Glass. Murray was quite dominant himself, posting a 26.3% usage mark in 22-23 and a 28.1% usage mark last season, which put him in the 90th percentile among guards. This successfully got Young off-ball a bit more often, but he was still reluctant to serve as an off-ball threat in that role, which nullified the potential benefits of taking the ball out of his hands. Murray also mucked things up for Young offensively, despite cutting down on his midranges and taking more catch and shoot 3s instead. After filling 40% of his shot diet in 22-23 with mid range attempts, Dejounte cut it down to 23% under a full season of Quin Snyder. That still wasn’t enough to cover for their woeful defense and Dejounte seemed more overtaxed than ever having to defend as a 2. Was the experiment worth the unprotected picks Atlanta gave to San Antonio in return? Maybe, maybe. But at the end of the day, the franchise was headed nowhere quickly with those two quarterbacking the offense together.
So how did the Hawks go about rectifying this obvious problem? Well to the surprise of no one, Atlanta decided to move on from Murray this offseason and ship him off to New Orleans in exchange for Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr., E.J. Liddell, Cody Zeller, and draft capital. Daniels is the headliner of the return package and there is no denying that the pickup is one that makes a lot of sense on paper. For starters, he should be a much more impactful defense presence in the backcourt than Murray. He is an absolute menace in on-ball situations, frequently accumulating steals and generally harassing the opposition into clunky actions. According to Dunks & Threes, he posted a +1.5 Defensive Estimated Plus Minus mark, which placed him in the 88th percentile in the NBA. When it comes to generating steals, he did that at a 2.6% rate, which is very impressive, especially coupled with his 0.8% block rate. He will be a perfect complement for Young, who has been one of the biggest defensive liabilities in the league his entire career. The vision is also clearer when it comes to the balance of power offensively. Daniels is accustomed to operating as a low usage guard (13.9% for 2023-24), so he should be more than comfortable letting Trae cook until his number is called. Daniels will need to straighten out the three point shot to become a 100% ideal fit, but at just 21 years of age, there is still some time for that to come around. He did take 50 more attempts in year two than one, so he is at least getting more comfortable letting them fly.
The rest of the pieces of the trade look more like filler, although Nance will be a handy player to have in the rotation as a supplementary big man who runs handoffs into screen & rolls, and launch the occasional jumper. He probably won’t play a ton due to his limitations and tendency to get hurt, but it never hurts to have another solid vet in the locker room who can provide stability as well as guidance. Cody Zeller will be out of the rotation in all likelihood, but he is still a decent big body to have on standby in the event of injuries. The picks will help to replenish the stockpile of talent for ATL, or they can be flipped in future deals. The 2025 1st via the Lakers probably won’t be terribly valuable, but there is an outside chance that LeBron and/or AD struggle to stay on the court and the teams ends up in the late lottery as a result. Overall, the trade might be a bit underwhelming at first glance, especially when compared to what Murray cost the Hawks a couple of years ago, but if Daniels takes a notable leap in the next couple of seasons, it makes the return look much more solid and will bring Atlanta closer to contention that much faster.
In the immediate, the goal for this team is still to break into the playoffs and make some noise. That has to be the priority as long as Trae Young is still rocking one of these jerseys. He has become somewhat underrated recently due to two straight mediocre seasons for the team as a whole, but don’t get it twisted: He is still an elite guard who can take over games with his playmaking prowess and ability to nail deep long balls. There aren’t many other players on the planet who are able to post 25+ PPG and 10+ APG seasons in their sleep and Young has done it two years in a row now. He also boosted his 3 point percentage to a near career high at 37%, which makes his high frequency more digestible. We can expect more of the same from him this coming season and the same goes for his new full-time partner in the backcourt Bogdan Bogdanovic. The man they call Bogey is fresh off of an epic Olympic run with the Serbian National Team, that almost resulted in a victory over the United States. That should give him the juice needed to fly out of the gates swinging to begin his eighth season in the association. He frequently shifts between starter and reserve, as evidenced by his 33 starts in 79 total games last season. The Hawks might elect to start him at the beginning, but things could change quickly depending on how he performs along with the bench unit. Regardless of his start vs bench ratio next season, he will surely be the primary scoring option when he’s on the court. He won’t do much to alleviate the defensive concerns that are present when sharing the court with Young, but he will get buckets in bunches.
The remainder of the roster is a mixed bag, although promise abounds in 2024 number one overall pick Zaccharie Risacher and breakout forward Jalen Johnson. The former might be the least talked about top overall pick since the abominable Anthony Bennett, but he had a solid Summer League that offered a glimpse into his potential as an impact wing. Johnson was an excellent highlight player who feasted in transition and blossomed into an overall monster inside the arc who can overwhelm opponents when needed. Going into year four, he is a clear bright spot who should be a matchup nightmare and bring a fair amount of wins to the fold once again. The center rotation is good, but not great. How much promise does Kobe Bufkin have? It is tough to know for sure since he only logged 17 NBA games for his rookie campaign and did not get to participate in Summer League. Either way, he’s a player to keep an eye on off the bench in the aftermath of the Murray departure. He will have a real chance to earn minutes if he proves he can be a moderately efficient shot creator. Ultimately, the Hawks are a threat to break into the postseason, but I wouldn’t count on it due to their struggles on the defensive end of the ball that probably won’t get much better soon. Their primary path to an above average season lies in how much they can put the ball in the basket and that is far from a sure thing with how much is in flux here between a shaky backcourt rotation, thin frontcourt, and a somewhat uninspiring center trio.
Charlotte Hornets
2023-24 ranks:
Offense – 28th (109.3)
Defense – 29th (119.8)
Net Rating – 30th (-10.5)
Weighted Age – 23rd (25.1)
No, those season ranks for the Hornets are not typos. They were really that bad (again) last season. If you take a look at the roster as a whole, it really isn’t as bad as the numbers indicated. A big reason why the team was such a dumpster fire was due to the absence of two of their franchise centerpieces: LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams. It is extremely difficult to survive in the NBA over the course of an entire season without your primary options in the backcourt and frontcourt. Ball is an incredible talent with a knack for passing the ball, but only appeared in 22 games for Charlotte after logging just 36 games the season before. At just 22 years of age, he is trending in the wrong direction. If the franchise wants to get back on track, it all starts with Ball’s health. They need him to get back to the All-Star force we saw in 2021-22, coming off of a Rookie of the Year award. He averaged 20 points per game, 7.6 assists, and 5.2 rebounds at nearly 39% from three and played 75 games to boot. The tale of Mark Williams might be an even more tragic one. At 7 feet tall, 240 pounds and legitimate leaping ability, he is an incredible force in the middle…when he is upright. We only saw him in 19 games last season, bringing his career total over two seasons to a whopping 63. Failing to hit a full 82 games over two full seasons is not a great sign, especially for someone of his size and stature. To make matters worse, he sustained an offseason injury, per the Hornets social media account. If he can right by season start or close to it, he is a prime candidate for a breakout. He averaged almost ten rebounds in 26 minutes per game in 2023-24 and is hyper efficient, thanks in part to the harmonious relationship he has with Ball in guard/big actions. If they can get on the court at the same time, it could mean trouble for every team that lines up against them. Luckily, if Williams does miss time, which seems inevitable, they can turn to reserve big Nick Richards, who is not bad at all.
Despite a brutal season for Buzz City, they did discover another franchise building block in 2023 2nd overall pick Brandon Miller. He obviously still has a few things to iron out, but you can’t ask for much more than he displayed as a rookie. A smooth scorer with size, he has already demonstrated that he has the ability to be a takeover scorer from two levels. The rim pressure will come as his frame fills out and he gains more confidence putting the ball on the ground, but a semi efficient,6’9” forwards who can handle pretty high usage load is a good place to be heading into sophomore year. We’ll have to see how he fits in with Ball and Williams as he got very little time next to them last season, but there’s no reason why it can’t work out in everyone’s favor. Miller will spread the floor and make it tougher for defenders to tag rollers or double the ball. Playing more minutes next to the other two should allow Miller to get easier looks from all over the floor and reduce the amount of self-created shots he has to take, further boosting his already decent shooting percentages. He finished with an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 53%, which was just below average for his position. As long as he continues to refine his game and take steady steps upwards in his development, he will bring even more excitement to a Charlotte franchise that is starved for some.
Just how starved are they? Well, their last playoff appearance came all the way back in 2016, when franchise GOAT Kemba Walker was still in his prime. They aren’t exactly knocking on the door of the Sacramento Kings’ dreadful 16 year drought, but they’ll be in the ballpark before long. On the bright side, there are some new faces in the fold that will help to drag this team out of the depths of the lottery. Grant Williams will be on board for a full season now, after coming over mid season in the PJ Washington exchange. He has next to no on-ball juice, but he is a fine utility player who can soak up some minutes as a reserve or starter in a pinch. Josh Green has gotten steadily better each season and could be a day one starter, depending on how new Head Coach Charles Lee decides to deploy everyone. As a rookie coach, it will be fun to watch how he acclimates to the role and what kind of identity he forges along the way. One name that he should be able to trust off the bench is sharp shooting veteran, Seth Curry. Once upon a time, the younger Curry was one of the most accurate shooters in the league. Between 2018-19 and 2020-21, he hit over 45%(!!) of his triples on solid volume. Although he’s got more miles on his legs since then, he is still someone that will demand respect from beyond the deep line and will make life easier for the other four players on the court.
2024 lottery pick Tidjane Salaun and Miles Bridges play the same position and are fascinating players, for very different reasons. Salaun will be one of the youngest players in the league when he takes the court for the first time, only turning 19 years old this past July. He is extremely raw, but the Hornets are betting on him to take massive leaps in his game year over year to justify a 6th overall selection. If things go sideways for the Hornets again at some point during the season, his development will become even more of a focus. By default however, he will probably not see the floor much for a team that has their eyes set on real improvement. He will have to prove himself in G League before becoming a rotational staple. Speaking of staples, Bridges has assumed that role with his combination of above the rim abilities and respectable long-ball. Regardless of how you feel about his off-court issues, he is still a supremely talented player who makes Charlotte better anytime he takes the court. His role is now more clear cut with P.J. Washington out of the fold.
Add it all up, and this is a team that has a pretty high ceiling, but a very, very low floor. If everything breaks right, they could achieve one of the biggest year over year win total jumps in the league, similar to what we saw with the Magic and Rockets recently. On the flip side, if any member of their big 3 core misses significant time, it is pretty much a wrap for any playoff hopes. Only time will tell which extreme they gravitate towards.
Miami Heat
2023-24 ranks:
Offense – 21st (114.0)
Defense – 5th (112.2)
Net Rating – 16th (+1.8)
Weighted Age – 8th (28.0)
It was quite the roller coaster ride for the Miami Heat last season, who entered 2023-24 play as the defending Eastern Conference champions. They were in talks to acquire superstar Damian Lillard most of last summer, but he ultimately got shipped to the Bucks instead. Despite their best efforts to compensate for missing out in other ways, they were not able to build on their 2023 success and suffered a gentlemans sweet at the hands of their eternal rivals, the Boston Celtics. Their first round flame out can be partially explained by very poor injury luck down the stretch of the season, as Jimmy Butler, and Terry Rozier both missed the entirety of the Boston series. Of course, that’s just par for the course for Miami as they are usually top five in total games missed due to injury. Most of that is just rotten luck and it’s something that could easily turn around for them heading into another season with title aspirations. Is this iteration of the team built to win at the highest level? Well management certainly thinks so. For what seems like the tenth season in a row, Pat Riley and company decided to keep the powder dry and run back almost the entirety of the core from last year, only making small moves for Alec Burks and Nassir Little in the final days of the offseason. They are certainly productive NBA players, but won’t drastically alter the fortunes for the Heat in any significant way. They did also retain free agent Highsmith for two years,which was huge, as he has become a low maintenance 3&D contributor for the team.
Ultimately, the keys for success with this group boil down to health and internal development. To expand on the latter point, the aforementioned Nassir Little is still only 24 years old and could flourish as many have before him in the Miami Heat “Culture” system. Jaime Jaquez was in contention for Rookie of the Year most of the way before running into the dreaded rookie wall around the halfway mark of last season, but he still has some runway to come back even better in year two, despite his relatively advanced age of 23. We also can’t forget about 2024 Summer League Champion Kel’el Ware, who many see as a dark horse contender for next year’s Rookie of the Year award. The signs he showed as a vertical spacer, rim protector, and occasional shooter in Vegas were hard to ignore. He could eventually blossom into an ideal frontcourt partner for Bam, but to start, he should see plenty of run as a backup big that will need to improve on his physicality and rebounding to gain Coach Spo’s trust as the games progress. Nikola Jovic is also a candidate for improvement and this year would be a great time to see that, as he is slated to begin the year as the starting four next to Bam. Whether he remains the starter is another question all together and really depends on if continues to deliver on the outside shot and improved defense that we saw from him at times last year. He could also stand to get to the line more, as one free throw attempt per game for someone standing 6’10” is disappointing, to say the least.
Shifting back to the health portion of the equation, Tyler Herro has never been a player that can be relied on to appear in a large majority of the NBA games in any given season. He just posted a career low in that department with 42 last season and has never eclipsed 70 through five seasons. It would really help Miami’s offensive output if he could stay on the floor to contribute through off the dribble shooting, and subtle passing acumen. More on the Heat’s offense in a moment. Another big question related to Herro’s play is his optimal role. It seems like everyone is convinced that his best role is off the bench except him. He won the 6th Man of the Year just two years ago, but he is now insistent on being a full time starter within Miami’s system. The truth is, Maybe if his running mate in the backcourt was a better fit, like a Kyle Lowry type player, it would make more sense. However, a Rozier/Herro backcourt is only going to drive up the amount of pressure that is on Butler and Bam to be stoppers. Additionally, it makes Miami even smaller as a unit, with every projected starter measuring in at under 6’10” or under. They will be bullied on the boards and in other areas by larger teams like Denver. Of course, the Heat have not been a below average unit defensively since 2016 and they have finished inside the top ten in defensive efficiency the last four seasons in a row. Even if Herro and Rozier create a suboptimal defensive unit in the backcourt, the odds are that the brilliance of Bam, Spo, and Butler, and others will be enough to post yet another season full of stifling pressure. That alone will allow them to hang around the bottom end of the playoff picture, at worst.
The Heat won’t be any more than play-in/1st round snacks without a real improvement in offense, specifically on ball creation. The Heat are usually a well-connected team that is better than the sum of its parts, but it is still necessary to have a few bail out players who can make something out of nothing when all the primary options break down during a possession. That is a big reason why they swung a trade for Rozier last season that cost them some of what little draft capital they have and picked up ex-Knick Alec Burks in free agency for the minimum. Both are known for being big bucket getters and that will be huge for taking pressure off of Butler and allowing Bam to function more as a 3rd or 4th option that can focus more on the little things, similar to what he did for Team USA a couple of months ago. Rozier in particular will be a huge X-Factor. He had a few big games for the club before a neck injury shut down his season, so if he can recapture that magic that made him a high level starter in Charlotte, it will boost the ceiling of the Heat, significantly. Bottom line, this is a pivotal year for the Heat with Butler’s likely impending free agency. It seems unlikely that he would simply walk away from a franchise that has fit him so well, but if they suffer through another year of uneven play, stagnation from the young players, and a finish that falls well short of a Finals appearances, anything is in play. Therefore, it is up to every member of the Heat to take this season very seriously and do everything possible to get back to contention.
Orlando Magic
2023-24 ranks:
Offense – 22nd (113.4)
Defense – 2nd (111.3)
Net Rating – 15th (+2.1)
Weighted Age – 27th (24.0)
The Magic were one of last season’s great feel good stories, as the young pieces coalesced to form an absolutely beastly defensive unit who frequently shut things down all over the court. They found their way into the Eastern Conference playoffs outright as the 5th seed, which meant they did not have to struggle through the Play-In Tournament. Former top overall draft selection Paolo Banchero secured his first all-star appearance in just year two and proved to the world that he can lead a team into the postseason as the top option. His exploits did not stop once he got to the playoffs, either. In the Magic’s seven game grindfest versus the Cleveland Cavaliers, Banchero averaged 27 points per game on shooting splits of 45/40/75. He was able to assert his will against the stout defense of the Cavs, although it must be noted that they were without key paint presence Jarrett Allen for the duration of that series due to injury. Either way, it clarifies the way forward for Orlando now that they know they have a bonafide franchise player who is capable of performing on a high level in the big moments and should only get better from here.
One area where Orlando struggled however, was putting the ball in the basket. Most of their key pieces are defensive minded and not the most comfortable creating for themselves in half-court situations. That can be identified as a primary reason why they were not able to knock off the Cavs, despite the fact that they were short handed the entire series. To remedy that, the organization snatched Kentvious Caldwell Pope from Denver, who are actively trying to escape the stiffest tax penalties. KCP is a bit older now, but he will bring an element of spot up shooting from deep that was painfully absent last season. He is one of the most consistent deep ball threats in the game, as he hit 40% or more of his threes in three of the last four regular seasons on at least four attempts per game. He is a real deal shooter. Plus, he also will not take anything away from what they already have on defense, as he has proven himself to consistently be a legitimate force on the perimeter that can hold his own against the best in the game. Keep an eye on the types of lineups that he is a part of this coming season, as they could prove to be quite formidable from a defensive perspective. It may seem obvious, but he is also a perfect fit as a thirty-one-year-old veteran with two championships who can bring an element of leadership that hasn’t been present on this version of the Magic. This will serve to only accelerate their growth.
The rest of the summer was just business as usual, as management decided to extend players like Franz & Mo Wagner, Goga Bitaze, and Jonathan Issac. It is clear that the organization firmly believes that last season was only a taste of what is to come and it can be built upon. Apart from that however, the additional years tacked on to those existing contracts are completely reasonable and should be easily tradable if the Magic decide to flip some of them for a star level player. Franz is unlikely to be going anywhere soon, since he seems to be a key piece going forward. Although he struggled with his three point shot, the rest of his game seems to be rounding out nicely. He is a force going downhill, as he properly uses his body to create contact, and glide around defenders when necessary. He shot 67% at the rim on even more attempts than the year prior. Aside from that, he is just a very well rounded player who can do pretty much everything on the basketball court. Run pick & rolls, play off ball, excel defensively, you name it and he can probably do it at at least a respectable level. The Magic are banking on added improvement here though, because he doesn’t quite seem to be a player that warrants a maximum rookie extension that will pay him at least $224 million over the five years of the new deal. Therefore, it is a slightly risky deal, but for a franchise that has not been able to lean into multiple all-star level talents for many years now, it is undoubtedly a breath of fresh air.
One player who did not get an extension as of this writing is the heart and soul of the Magic, Jalen Suggs. He will never be a premier offensive talent, but similar to players like Marcus Smart that came before, he gives his absolute all every time he steps on the court. He finished 11th overall in Dunks & Threes Estimated Defensive Plus Minus stat for last season and that might even be selling him a bit short when it comes to the plays he can make on that side of the ball. His role going into next season is pretty clear, but he would be best suited playing next to a high usage guard in the backcourt that can compensate for what he lacks as an offensive option. Unfortunately, the closest thing to said player is probably Cole Anthony. He can go get a bucket in the crunch, no doubt about it, but he is still a tier or two below being a true number one option who can single handedly change games. There is a common theme here with the backcourt options currently on the roster. They are all quite good on one side of the ball, but leave something to be desired on the other. Anthony Black still exists and his role going forward is somewhat murky since he cannot space the floor in a real way yet. Garry Harris is still around as well, but his play these days is still a far cry from what we got used to seeing from him in his Denver days. Eventually, they will need to swap out some of the pieces for ones that compliment the core more seamlessly, but for now, it is a solid group of guys that will play hard and be some of the biggest pests ever for the competition.
The frontcourt might be even more of an interesting story. Joining Banchero, Wager, Issac, and others in the rotation will be German rookie Tristan Da Silva, who shot the leather off the basketball in Summer League. The rationale for selecting him 18th in the draft back in June makes a ton of a sense as he is a player who doesn’t need the ball in his hands a ton to be successful, can hit spot up looks, is ready for minutes right out of the gate as a 23 year old who won’t need several years of development first, and should be at least a serviceable defender who can guard a couple of positions. The shooting is something that we should believe in the most, as he shot 39% his last two seasons at Colorado and 83% from the line his senior season. It is unlikely he blossoms into a go-to player, but he should find a role early and could have a long career in the league, whether it is in Orlando, or another franchise altogether. Bitadze and Carter Jr. will hold things down in the middle as they play clear cut roles protecting the rim and serving as an outlet down low when things get murky on the outside. Carter Jr. in particular has been known to miss chunks of regular season action, which shouldn’t be too much of a problem given the fact that Goga can step in to start at a moments notice and Issac and perfectly capable of operating as a center in certain lineups for short spurts. He is a terrifying shot blocker and overall rim deterrent who just needs to be load-managed to keep him fresh throughout the season.
So how far can this team go this coming season? Well they seem to be headed towards another top five finish in defensive rating since their primary stoppers are all returning and they added KCP, so they should be a low playoff season most of the way at minimum. They are also pretty deep at every position, so they are built to withstand absence from anyone outside of their top two players, Wager and Bachero. However, they still lack some offensive juice, especially in their guard rotation, so that will probably create a firm ceiling when it comes to the postseason. They still lag behind elite units like Boston, and New York, who should be more balanced and more suited to play different styles of basketball as things heat up during games. If Paolo continues to improve on his efficiency and his shot diet to something more modern with less mid range looks, that will improve their chances. They also need Wagner to have a bounceback season from the three. KCP will also pay dividends in the postseason, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we’re looking at a second round playoff team here. They might need the matchups to break a certain way to advance, but this franchise is looking to build on what they accomplished last year and the first playoff series win since 2010 would go a long way towards instilling confidence that this team can keep rising for years to come.
Washington Wizards
2023-24 ranks:
Offense – 25th (110.5)
Defense – 28th (119.6)
Net Rating – 27th (-9.0)
Weighted Age – 24th (24.9)
Yuck, we’re back to the land of the lottery dwellers in this final section of the preview. Fresh off of a divorce with franchise mainstay Bradley Beal, the team found themselves with very little incentive or outright ability to win games. They finished with a dreadful record of 15-67 and spent most of the 2023-24 season just trying to find out which players are worth keeping around long term. They also made moves to accelerate their descent to the bottom of the league, which involved shipping off Daniel Gafford to the Mavericks mid-season, letting Tyus Jones walk in free agency, and trading Deni Avdija coming off of a career year. Their primary pickup from last year, Jordan Poole had a dreadful season by all accounts, as he percentages fell across the board and just looked overmatches as a full-time starter. His decision making was incredibly poor and made many Washington possessions an absolute slog to get through. He spent 12 games in the second half of the season coming off the bench, and seemed to be much more at home there. He averaged 20 points per game on 36% shooting from three in those games, so maybe the Wizards should consider playing him there when the coming season kicks off. The other player of note for Washington last season was Kyle Kuzma. During his age 28 season, he achieved a career high in points per game, serving as the number one option most of the time for the Wizards. He is who he is at this point, which is a sturdy starting level forward who can be somewhat decent on the defensive end of the ball, when he wants to. It’s tempting to chalk up with raw output to bloated numbers on a bad team, but we’ve seen a similar level of play from him in the past on much better Lake and Wizards team. He’s a very good player, maybe one that is too good to stick around this team for too much longer.
So what is the path forward for DC’s finest? Well, it starts with identifying their foundational pieces, much like Wall and Beal were for many years in the past. They seemed convinced that Wemby’s old teammate, Bilal Coulibaly could be that for them eventually when they traded up to get him last summer from the Pacers. While he still has a fair amount of growing to do on the offensive side of the ball, he showed a ton of promise as a rangy forward who could track down shots on the move and swat them away at the apex, as well as force steals. He started 15 games for the Wizards last season and could be in line for even more appearances in the starting lineup, especially if Kuzma is traded at some point during the season. The second high lottery pick of this new Wizards era was Alex Sarr, who to be honest, didn’t inspire a ton of confidence at summer league. He was tentative, avoided contact, and just didn’t have a great sense of where to be on the basketball court when on offense. On the bright side, he did show why he could be a top tier defensive player in due time with timely rotations, weakside blocks, and high activity whenever he was on the court. Those skills alone should get him on the court for a team with basically nothing to lose and he could use a ton of reps to help his offensive game along. He may struggle out there, but it’s worth taking some losses in the short term in order to get him up to speed a bit quicker. At the end of the day, Summer League isn’t the best predictor of future success, so it’s possible that things start to click for him once he gets more games behind him. It would be nice for him to pan out considering the dreadful season the franchise had to endure to get the right to draft him.
Joining Sarr in the big man rotation will be Jonas Valanciunas, who was signed as a free agent from the New Orleans Pelicans. Valanciunas has been a rock solid center for over a decade now and should be a huge help as a veteran presence to Sarr as they spend time together. He isn’t exactly a game changing big man however, so he shouldn’t boost up the Washington win total too much and can of course be easily shut down in order to help protect their lottery standing sort of like Horford was when he was with the Thunder a few years ago. They also still have Richaun Holmes, who was a productive starting center himself not all that long ago for Sacramento. At the very least, he should be another big body who can soak up minutes, fouls, and also help to get Sarr up to speed in the professional ranks. Things brings into question Marvin Bagley’s place on the team. He actually had some good moments with Washington in the latter part of last season and the coaching staff might be inclined to give him a regular spot in the frontcourt depending on how other things shake out. The move to get him from Detroit was one that seems to be worth it, seeing as though the organization needs as many cracks at finding rotational level+ players as possible and he is still just 25.
The story should be pretty straightforward to the Wizards in 2024-25. Compete, evaluate, and hope for a fair amount of internal development while watching the losses pile up. We’ll see just how much of that comes to fruition, but the beginnings of a formula are there. There are stable vets at the one and five in Brogdon and Valanciunas. There are three solid starting level players in the fold in Poole, Kuzma, and Kispert, who doesn’t get hardly enough love, by the way. He had another very durable season with 80 games played, hit 38% of his threes, and showed improvement in diversifying his game by attacking closeouts and making some things happen inside the arc. He registered 184 shot attempts at the rim compared to 125 the year before and he managed to increase his percentage by two to a very impressive 76%. There are also three rookies and sophomores that have a decent chance of developing into high level contributors in Coulibaly, Sarr, and Bub Carrington. Carrington looks to be an excellent pick on the surface and could prove to be one of the biggest steals of the 2024 class. The best Wizards fans can hope for is for some real improvement from the young guns and for the hierarchy to get ironed out a bit. If those things come to fruition, then it will be a successful season for Washington, regardless of how many losses they suffer through.
