By Avi Tyagi
In the middle of the night on February 1st, group chats flourished with activity. Dormant chats became active, active chats became kinetic. For, out of thin air, whisked in a trade so ludicrous, half the internet thought Shams was hacked. The key components of the deal as per this Shams tweet: https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/1885920217362051276?
In case the link breaks down, for posterity:
Full trade:
– Lakers: Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber, Markieff Morris
– Mavericks: Anthony Davis, Max Christie, 2029 LAL 1st
– Jazz: Jalen Hood-Schifino, 2025 Clippers 2nd, 2025 Mavericks 2nd
In the spirit of that frenetic online activity, I will break down the trade in the manner by which I composed my thoughts and arranged them in paragraph formats.
My main thought: I don’t want to react too early to this deal even though it feels easy to. It just feels so evident that both teams are going to make some moves off of this to either balance out the roster or in the Lakers’ case, commit to a direction and version of a roster short and long term. I know it’s not as talked about a factor in all this, but I do feel like the new CBA making team building so difficult makes committing to a supermax player harder too if you’re only let’s say 80% certain you want to give that deal to someone. And that feels like where the Mavs are at. They did the equivalent of shorting Nvidia. And as the team that drafted and nurtured him, they do have a chance of knowing him better than almost anyone else. He’s a person and no team can say for certain whether a person will change or grow or react now to the seismic shift that just occurred. But it feels relevant. This is a 26-year-old megastar entering his prime who eventually jumped past Trae Young when they were closely comparable and eventually Harden into being the premier model of this archetype of heliocentric player. And yes, he still is too inattentive and listless defensively. And yes, he complains too much on the court for phantom fouls. And maybe most importantly, he has made a habit of showing up visibly 20-30 pounds heavier than expected at the start of a season and finding that burst and game shape in the back half of seasons. He’s also a consistent top 5-7 player for the last 4 seasons, who’s entering his prime. It’s a little shocking to me Mavs didn’t at least go for two swap rights on this deal too. Like even if you couldn’t pry the 2031 1st (which feels weird to me), and even if you had to have AD, at least get swap rights on 2 of the 3 firsts among 26, 28, and 30. I’m guessing Luka will just do the 2 + PO extension approach when it comes to that. Get 10 years of service and make up a lot of the money he lost with the super-max off the table. If any franchise can feel confident they can keep a superstar, it’s the LakeShow.
My second extended thought: It also feels like each franchise is finally speaking up in a way that I understand, even if I don’t necessarily agree with the negotiation process. Mavs were finally done with Luka and were ready to set a standard and culture for how to approach training professionally and prioritizing effort in the game. The Lakers were finally done with LeBron and AD basically using every trade deadline to point out management’s flaws and insisting upon trades that are either unrealistic or potentially detrimental. Like the fact that both players at the time were quick to take credit for the recruitment of Russ and the deal but perhaps quick to point fingers afterward as if the roster got worse without any of their own input posing culpability.
Third thought: It’s interesting Anthony Davis waived the trade bonus to get the team under the luxury tax. It really emphasizes the report that he’s good with this deal and truly does believe in Nico and the organization and is willing and ready to leave for Dallas. Although perhaps it really is as simple as Davis being happy he can finally play alongside premium centers like he’s wanted for years. It also really gives a sense of where the league is at and the impact the Cavs have had. The fact that one of the first things team officials point to is trying to replicate Mobley and Allen, two All-Star caliber players, and their overall dynamic and influence. Which I can see. Lively’s young but when he’s back and healthy, I don’t know if timelines would align but you can squint and see the vision. AD can be the sort of tertiary scorer Mobley has finally become and crucially, Lively is the sort of impactful defender who finishes with ease, fouls infrequently, and has the requisite vision to develop into a solid passer just as Jarrett has. After all, that was one of Lively’s most beloved attributes entering the draft. He just had an uncanny vision for a freshman big. Of course, this model works best if you have two star outside shot makers on and off ball who are good passers, the Mavs right now only have 1. Still makes me feel there’s a second move to come.
Right now, full strength, I think Kyrie, Grimes, Klay, AD, and Lively start. With Dinwiddie-Christie-Marshall-P.J.-Gafford off the bench. Lively is hurt for a while so it’ll be easier to make sure P.J. stays involved and gets minutes. But I think they’re better off trying to upgrade at a wing spot with another trade here. I think they need a second shot creating scorer who’s a better on-ball passer and capable of sustaining a playoff load to a level even Kyrie might not be able to rn. Jimmy is a Texas native and put the Mavs on his list. The Mavs could theoretically trade their 2025 1st and the contracts of P.J., Klay, Naji, Powell, and Hardy for the contracts of Alec Burks and Jimmy. Miami would likely waive the contracts of Richardson and Keshad Johnson in that scenario. It puts Dallas back into luxury tax and maybe it’s too risky and the long-term contract ramifications too unwieldy. Considering they traded Luka because of contract concerns, this one would surprise me even if you do have Exum back and OM Prosper to soak up some minutes.
The second deal, depending on how Brooklyn feels about P.J., would be to trade the 2025 1st and the 2025 2nd more favorable of Denver and Philly with the contracts of Powell, P.J., and Exum for the contract of Cam Johnson. Cam’s been fabulous this season as a secondary decision-maker, solid team defender, and capital-E-Elite shooter. Perhaps Brooklyn could have an interest in flipping P.J. Washington’s contract elsewhere for more assets.
My next thought: The JJ Reddick relationship with Luka feels like a key linchpin here. Former teammates for a short time, one of the few podcasts Luka went on. JJ’s a legendarily meticulous, nuanced, and detailed individual as a player, media member, and coach. This feels like an organizational belief that Redick can get the most out of Luka in a way even Kidd couldn’t. And Kidd was fantastic but JJ’s personality as a coach is just a little different.
One more thought on AD: For AD this will be different from the 2020 team. Having McGee or Dwight at the 5 in that stage of their careers in that era of the league helped. But to say that’s primarily why they won is not totally true. They won because their 5 main rotation players in the playoffs were phenomenal and two-way forces and only 1 was a center (AD). The leading minute-getters in the playoffs were Bron, AD, KCP (sent out in the Westbrook deal), Danny Green, and Caruso (just allowed to leave as Lakers preserved financial flexibility and picked signing or extending other players over him (Nunn and THT)). Lively especially and even Gafford at this stage both better offensively as passers and finishers to make a true Cavs’ blueprint two-big lineup work. I’m sure AD will love that.
In conclusion, the Lakers get the reset they wanted, and the Mavs get the reset they decided they wanted. From a technical trade construction perspective, the new CBA narrowed the avenues to get the deal done but they put it together rather quickly and Utah got some nice second-round capital out of it. We’ll see what moves they make next to fill out these rosters and how that plays out. After being caught off guard in this fashion, all eyes are on LeBron. With intentions to stay in California and a No-Trade-Clause in hand (see what I did there), does he finally unite with Steph and Draymond in their time of need? The Warriors have been the textbook definition of mediocre. 24-24 on the year, 9-9 in their last 18, 4-4 in the last two weeks with a -0.3 point differential on the year. There’s desperation to help an aging and injured Curry out. I don’t believe he would want to stay in LA after they hid the trade talks from him and traded one of his favorite teammates of all-time and his co-star with no formal notice. LeBron also doesn’t fit the timeline of a Luka roster, and so the shrewd move might be to pivot to the future. Gain assets and aim for a 2027 championship. Rome wasn’t built in a day and the Lakers don’t need to be either. For teams, for media members, for fans, it’s time to be patient and stay ready to evaluate.
