By Avi Tyagi
Welcome to the NTC season preview series! Over the next several weeks, we will attempt to bring you the most in-depth analysis possible about all 30 teams in both written and podcast formats leading up to the tip-off of the 2024-25 NBA season. We have split the segments up by division, so we will provide previews for five teams per week for a total of six weeks. Within each team preview, you will find a short recap of how they finished their 2023-24 seasons, key players to watch, what their goals for next season might be, and more. We hope you enjoy the ride. Feel free to contact us with any questions or comments you may have! With that being said, let’s get to it.
Previous Division: Southeast Division
Next Division: Central Division
From the oldest division in the league, we now head to the Southwest. Hollywood might be represented by the Pacific Division, but there’s an unparalleled quantity of young stars residing in the Southwest. Perhaps no other division can boast the likes of Wemby, Luka, Ja, Zion, Sengun, Jaren, and Bane (all 26 and under) in one division. Older star guards like Kyrie Irving, Fred VanVleet, and Dejounte Murray are the outliers in this division of the future. And yet, this division still boasts many excellent young prospects (Reed Sheppard, Dereck Lively, Amen Thompson, GG Jackson, and Stephon Castle just to name a few). The southwest profiles as the leading candidate for most improved division this season, as healthier seasons from stars and breakout performances from young stars provide avenues to catapult each team into the playoff picture.
Dallas Mavericks
2023-24 ranks:
Offensive Rating – 10th (117.6)
Defensive Rating – 17th (115.4)
Net Rating – 14th (+2.2)
Weighted Age – 12th (26.5)
It’s borderline magical how the Mavericks have managed to swap out the entire supporting cast around Kyrie and Luka from what it was at the end of the 2022-23 season. In their primary rotation, only Kleber remains from the “before times”. The Nico Harrison era may have began with an inauspicious start (a late 1st for Christian Wood and losing Brunson set the course for the disastrous 2022-23 season), but the new regime found its footing quickly and completely revamped this roster to make their finals run last season. Signing Derrick Jones Jr. and Dante Exum proved to be inspired choices, the Dereck Lively selection was savvy, and the trades for P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford significantly altered the team’s upside. Dallas finished the season on a 21-7 sprint after the trade deadline (but before sitting starters in their final 2 games of the season). That 21-7 record was 2nd best only to Boston and their +8.8 Cleaning the Glass net rating was 3rd only to Boston and Denver. This team elevated from sneaky first round troublemaker to genuine title contender over the course of the regular season, buoyed by their new additions. Lively improved offensively and as a rebounder over their playoff run, no small feat for a rookie big. In combination with Daniel Gafford, Dallas finally had 48 minutes of shot swatting, rim running, screen setting excellence. Derrick Jones Jr. became a reliable point of attack defender and remade his image in the league. P.J. Washington finally provided them the power forward play they’d been seeking, melding solid defensive moments with the ability to put the ball on the floor on offense and finish the pre-built advantages that Kyrie or Luka set him up with. Dallas masterfully stretched the Timberwolves defense to its breaking point and neutralized Karl-Anthony Towns’ offense. Karl, the same efficient scorer who repeatedly destroyed mismatches against Denver and finished effectively without a true blue shotblocker, was rendered wholly inefficient against P.J. Washington and the Dallas shot stuffers sealing off the rim. Alas, Dallas themselves were inevitably dusted by the 4-Stars Boston Celtics.
Even with Porzingis hobbled for much of the series, Dallas struggled to take back the series. The Mavs momentarily provided some drama by exposing the Celtics’ stars’ playmaking flaws at the end of game 3 and swiftly trouncing them in game 4 on the backs of hot shooting, sloppy passes from Boston, and a sheer lack of effort from the C’s on the glass as the match got out of hand. Game 5 was a return to form for Boston. Jayson Tatum played arguably his cleanest game of the playoffs, the Celtics attacked the paint with renewed fervor to generate free throw attempts and offensive rebounds, and Boston closed out the series in style. Boston picked on Luka’s on ball defense with guard to guard screens, as was to be expected. Luka’s still highly exposable on that end. What made it more infuriating were the consistent off ball lapses in concentration.
This can’t be happening from your star guard and on-court leader:
On top of that, the offense devolved at times into stagnant isolation, your turn my turn possessions between Kyrie and Doncic. Even legendary shotmakers like Luka and Kyrie can’t live that way.
This is tough:
There was a lot more of that. Doncic and Kyrie took more than 24 combined pull-up shot attempts per game in the Finals. Those shots comprised over 50% of each of their shot diets. They had an effective field goal percentage of 42.2% on those shots. For context, the league average true shooting percentage during the regular season is 54.7%. Of the 93 players who shot enough to qualify for the playoff stats leaderboard, only Isaac Okoro had a lower eFG%. Of course, Doncic and Kyrie’s actual effective field goal percentage figures for the playoffs were far higher than 42.2%, but it’s because they supplemented those difficult shots with easier attempts at the rim or from 3 against weaker opponents. Pull-ups are difficult shots that must be taken sometimes. The Mavs’ duo are two of the best in the world at it. It’s very tough to rely on that shot to win you a series, especially against defenders like Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White. The Jays, who aren’t near the level of pull up shot makers as Doncic and Irving, finished with a 28.4 eFG% in the Finals. The key difference: they combined for only 12 pull-ups per game and it comprised only a third of their shot diet. The Celtics’ ball movement, variety of actions, and cavalcade of capable ball handlers created better shots throughout the series. Some of that is coaching, some of that is play style flexibility. Either way, it was one of the key reasons the Mavericks lost.
Enter Klay Thompson. He might be the single most boom-or-bust signing of the offseason. Cons: he was 2nd worst starter on a Warriors team that was thoroughly dominated by the battered and injured Kings in a play-in game. From the opening bell, the Kings recognized the mismatch of Klay on Keegan Murray and hunted for it persistently.
As covered, in the Pacific Division preview, last season was the first year Klay could no longer challenge defenders and drive to the paint for shots. Even post-injuries, 2023-24 was a different season from years past. He’s assuredly post-post-prime. That being said, he could be the skeleton key who fits a key need for the Mavericks. He most likely can’t be playing closing minutes in high level playoff matchups, particularly with Kyrie and Luka as supporting teammates. That’s just too many defensive sieves sharing a court at once. However, against bench lineups or when one of Kyrie and Luka sit, Klay is still an excellent source of secondary offense. Luka already feasts off 3 man actions based on concepts such as Spain PNRs or Double Drag actions. Having Klay either directly involved in those actions or on the periphery with a personal screener on the weak side of an action will open up even more space for Kyrie or Luka to cook with the ball in their hands. And if Klay is finally willing to take a lesser minute total or accept a smaller role, and his mobility improves as a result of it, you might get at least 20 minutes of superb 3 and D play against most opponents. The Mavs lost Derrick Jones Jr. for the chance to unlock a mystery box. Klay unlocks the possibility of supercharging their offense and creating a top 3 offense all season. In the Finals, with Jrue and Derrick White bearing down on him, Kyrie in particular struggled.
Kyrie shot 41% from the floor in the Finals, but it wasn’t all just poor 3 point shooting. While he did shoot 28% from 3, and that would skew his overall efficiency numbers in such a small sample size, Irving also shot only 47% from 2. It could even be argued that in totality, the 2024 NBA Finals was Irving’s statistically worst series. The matchups were meant to frustrate him and while this was generally a lower tail outcome for his shooting and finishing, it was also the most difficult set of shots he’s ever taken. He had 8 fewer touches per game in the Finals compared to the regular season, courtesy of getting 8 fewer half-court touches per game. He couldn’t separate off-ball as easily against Boston’s deck of switchable defenders and he struggled to create good shots off the dribble since a larger percentage of shot diet began to involve tough isolation buckets without a prebuilt advantage. Per Synergy data on NBA.com, Kyrie shot 8 field goals per game in which he attempted 7 or more dribbles leading into a shot. He shot 37% from the field with a 39% eFG%. Yikes! His average dribbles per touch jumped from 3.6 dribbles per touch in the regular season to 4.6 dribbles per touch, all as his efficiency cratered. Put simply, Kyrie would have benefitted from more off-ball threats and other scorers to play directly off of against Boston. Luka off-ball still doesn’t present much of an option to play off. Klay can. Kyrie is a savvy enough passer to quickly find Klay if the Mavs start making guard-to-guard screening a bigger part of their offense. Whereas Boston could willingly sag off Derrick Jones Jr. with the level of athletes and rim protection to counter any soft closeout attack he might try, Klay will readily fire away if abandoned in the corner or wings. This is a career 43% corner-3 shooter in the playoffs who will launch with abandon. The best part: if the Mavericks require more defensive solidity from younger players looking to shine in the spotlight with a consistent role, Quentin Grimes and Naji Marshall represent the other side of that coin.
Quentin Grimes and Naji Marshall both bring the sort of defensive intensity needed to build capable 4-out, 1-in lineups around Doncic and Irving. Naji Marshall might be the steal of the offseason. From the makers of the Derrick Jones Jr. experience, I present the X2 movie sequel. Naji Marshall is a more natural shooter than Derrick Jones ever was and can capably guard bigger wings just as Jones did. Jones is a super-athlete even in the league, so Naji won’t be able to take on perimeter matchups and navigate screens and provide secondary shot blocking in quite the same way, but he’s a far better secondary passer in the flow of an offense and had finally outgrown the limited role he has on New Orleans behind their 4 incredible wings. If P.J. Washington was to go cold and the Mavs needed a makeshift 4 who could put the ball on the floor and make decisions, Naji has the girth and strength to provide an alternate option. Quentin Grimes may have been particularly limited in 2023-24 due to injuries and disputes with Tom Thibodeau’s offensive scheme, bench usage, and player development philosophies, but he’s a young, tough shooting guard with the defensive mobility and physicality to cover wings and guards. He’s a very comfortable 3 point shooter and I think there’s still more for him to unlock as a secondary playmaker. I viewed him as an integral prospect from the 2021 draft after his sophomore season and I’m not ready to give up on the talented 24-year old we somewhat recently saw starting playoff games for the Knicks and taking on Jimmy Butler despite being hobbled by injury. He’s a playoff gamer and it wouldn’t shock me one bit if the Mavs found success with a Irving-Doncic-Grimes-Marshall-Lively lineup. When you’re a championship contender, you value versatility. While Spencer Dinwiddie and Dante Exum (when he returns) ensure a floor of competence at backup guard spots to bolster a regular season rotation, ultimately it’s the improvements Klay, Marshall, and Grimes provide over their predecessors in Tim Hardaway Jr., Derrick Jones Jr., and Josh Green that will make all the difference. As it currently stands, the Mavericks should expect to finish as clear top-4 seeds in a brutal Western Conference. And after last season’s spectacular romp through the conference, the Mavericks have good reason for believing they’re more prepared for winning an NBA title this season then they’ve ever been since 2011.
New Orleans Pelicans
2023-24 ranks:
Offensive Rating – 11th (117.4)
Defensive Rating – 7th (112.9)
Net Rating – 6th (+4.5)
Weighted Age – 18th (26.0)
The Pelicans are a known quantity in their current state. Exchanging Valanciunas and Nance minutes for Daniel Theis and Yves Missi minutes does not fundamentally alter the big picture view of this franchise. They’re a dominant regular season team with major playoff question marks. A superb defense will be asked to carry a roster with severe offensive spacing concerns at times. The center pairing with Zion isn’t a perfectly natural fit, and yet Zion hasn’t earned the trust yet to be regarded as a viable, consistent paint protector. And ultimately, no matter how interesting the team build is, Zion Williamson has played 99 regular season games and 0 playoff games in the last 3 seasons. Now that being said, there’s reasons to believe this Pelicans team might be the best of this Zion era. Sure they lost both their startin big and primary backup big for potential downgrades in the short term, and their roster is not as deep as it once was with Dyson Daniels and Naji Marshall. That might be irrelevant because Zion Williamson has a true point guard now. The Dejounte Murray experiment in Atlanta did not pay the sort of dividends they had hoped for on either side of the ball, but that should not take away from the improvements Dejounte made in his time with Quin Snyder. Dejounte modernized his offensive profile, exchanging some of the difficult self-generated long mid-rangers for an increased 3 point rate with more catch and shoot opportunities than he had in his 2021-22 All-Star season. Trae Young might not have been that comfortable playing off a star point guard; CJ McCollum sure is. I expect CJ and Dejounte to play off of each other spectacularly and the sneak peek from the opening minutes of preseason appeared promising. While CJ is a savvy pick and roll operator and decent extra passer, he was overtaxed as a nominal point guard on a high-level playoff team. On a team that has spent all preseason establishing a strict goal of building spacing around Zion with a publicly acknowledged goal to attempt 40 3-point attempts per game, CJ becomes an integral piece. Of their presumptive starters, only Dejounte and CJ have averaged more than 6 3PAs per 100 possessions. Ingram is notoriously conservative as a 3 point shooter and the NOP coaching staff continues to push him to drastically increase his volume after 5 strong years of free throw and 3 point shooting. If Ingram continues to remain hesitant, it’s nice to have Trey Murphy, Jordan Hawkins, and Jose Alvarado firing away off the bench. Herb Jones was 1st Team All-Defense. Dejounte and Zion already displayed chemistry in 1-4 PNR alignments and Zion even ran effective PNRs with Theis as his screener and shooters flared out to the wings and corners. Everyone on this team fits a mold around Zion, with one exception: Brandon Ingram.
With the addition of Dejounte Murray, the Pelicans added a player who commands a lot of influence on the ball over the course of a game. According to NBA.com, among players to play more than 40 games last season, Dejounte Murray finished with the 9th most touches per game. Even with the replacement of Valanciunas for Theis funneling touches away from the center position, and even with Nance, Marshall, and Dyson Daniels no longer on the roster, a healthy Pelicans roster would still have to redistribute some of their offensive load. In lineups shared with Dejounte and Zion, CJ McCollum will be able to pull from his Portland experience and work off ball. While CJ may have averaged 67.0 touches per game as the pseudo point guard last season, he averaged only 53.4 on Portland’s 2018-19 Western Conference Finalists’ roster. CJ, Seth Curry, and Rodney Hood primarily played off-ball while Lillard took command of the offense. It’s been many years since then, but CJ can thrive as the third or 4th option because he has a history of playing off ball and because he’s developed his game to become a willing 3-point shooter after being a reticent one earlier in his career. For a team that might be sorely in need of perimeter spacing in its starting lineup, CJ presents a clear option to run secondary actions for, with the express purpose of setting him up with C&S 3s. In the 5 years that Brandon Ingram has been a star with New Orleans, we’ve never seen him average fewer than 60 touches per game. If Zion, Dejounte, and CJ remain healthy this season, he might have to make some adaptations to thrive with that trio plus the non-spacing Daniel Theis in the starting lineup. And based on current reports, Theis won’t even start. It sounds as though Herb Jones will join their 4 ball-dominant players in the starting lineup. It would be a far cry from times when the Pelicans had no real point guard and Zion was injured, but Ingram has the potential to be an ideal wing scorer and perfect fit with this unorthodox lineup. After averaging 5.6 3-point attempts per 100 possessions over the last 3 seasons, Ingram must turn back the clock to his star-reaffirming 2020-21 campaign. That season, Ingram averaged a career high 8.6 3s per game, with only 16.5% of his attempts coming from the corners. Depending on lineup configurations, the Pelicans will be best off having Ingram play off ball and attacking from the wings. That way, they could run 4-5 PNRs with Zion and Theis towards an open side or place a different, weaker shooter like Jose Alvarado in the corner. Of course, with recent reports that the Pelicans might start Zion at the 5 with Herb at the 4, an emphasis on spacing takes on paramount importance. Defensively, the Pelicans would be starting 4 players all under 215 pounds. Herb used to guard point guards, now he’ll be their power forward. Ingram and CJ have never had to provide the sort of defensive physicality required by wings in small ball lineups. No one even knows if Zion can take on the physical responsibilities of being a center. With heavy staggering of lineups, you can minimize the impact of the decision but make no mistake. It’s a tough, purposeful choice and the best way to validate it is to embrace the 3-point shooting and open up space for Dejounte drives and Zion dunks. If you can’t sustainably defend, you better sustainably outscore your opponents by dominating in the paint and flaming from deep. Even James Borrego, an offensive coordinator with an extensive history of coaching in this league, has rarely ever seen a roster with this many capable and (potentially) willing shooters. He might have to pull from the archives. His 2016-17 season as an assistant with the Spurs might be his closest comparable situation. With Patty Mills, an older Manu Ginobili, prime Danny Green, and MVP-caliber Kawhi, 2017 San Antonio cranked up their 3-point volume after a downturn in 2015-16 in LaMarcus Aldridge’s first season due to a roster predicated on 2-big lineups. With Trey Murphy IV and Jordan Hawkins off the bench, New Orleans should comfortably clear 36 3-point attempts per game in a league fully adapted to pace and space principles. It will be up to Willie Green, James Borrego and the staff to emphasize building offensive sets predicated on shooting around Dejounte and Zion at all times and it will be up to Ingram to find his fit and provide the spacing complement necessary to optimally maximize this team. Otherwise, in the era of the new restrictive CBA and with Ingram in the last year of his deal, it might be time to make a trade. I expect New Orleans to finish top-4 in the conference if Zion is healthy, and frankly, it’s time the Pelicans set the same expectations for themselves. With Ingram as a UFA, Murphy as a RFA (restricted free agent), and 33 year old CJ McCollum only on the books for 2 more seasons, this is New Orleans’ year to strike. They might need to make a trade for a different center at the trade deadline and it would take major tendency changes from the players and the staff, but this might be the best chance New Orleans has ever had to win the Western Conference.
Houston Rockets
2023-24 ranks:
Offensive Rating – 20th (114.5)
Defensive Rating – 9th (113.4)
Net Rating – 18th (+1.1)
Weighted Age – 21st (25.1)
The young Rockets are in year 2 of their Fred VanVleet era. Tari Eason and Steven Adams are finally healthy. Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., and Jalen Green all just had the best seasons of their young career. Cam Whitmore and Amen Thompson had incredible effective rookie seasons. And, perhaps most importantly, the Houston Rockets were able to keep their 2024 (1-4 protected) pick and select Reed Sheppard 3rd overall. Since Reed might already be the most important long term asset on a franchise filled with top picks and proven veterans, I’ll start there.
I had Reed Sheppard as my number 1 prospect on my big board. I also expected him to go to Houston right after the lottery. Reed’s a smaller guard with underrated athleticism whose major flaw is shot creation at the rim. Being able to drive deep into the heart of the paint as a scorer is integral to creating shots as a primary option and there’s a chance Reed is just a 2-level scorer. His shot profile statistically as a freshman was closer to Devonte Graham in college than any other potential comparison. His defense was also messy and a little too gambling-oriented so it will take some time to clean that up. I think he can slide with defenders and fight over and around screens better, it’s just a work in progress. He also went to Kentucky, where a long storied history of guards before him had similar or more concerning freshman seasons knock them in the draft as they tried to adapt their play style. Compared to Booker, Maxey, Jamal Murray, and Immanuel Quickley, Reed had by far the most impactful season and steps in as the most ready made perimeter shot creator. Some people viewed him as a mid-lottery talent because he’s an enigmatic case study and an analytics darling who doesn’t pop on film and might physically be too slender (see: Haliburton’s 2020 draft fall) but I truly see star potential. He’s had one of the best analytics profiles I’ve ever seen from a freshman at any position. His perimeter shot creation off the bounce and off the catch is extremely polished. His footwork is impeccable and his balance is tremendous for a young guard who is yet to grow fully into his frame. In terms of skill development, I don’t know if I can think of a more polished guard prospect entering a draft since Ja Morant in 2019 and Trae and Luka the year prior. It’s a bold statement I know, but I love his game. On-ball, off-ball, shooting, passing, I think he can do it all. In a league with an emphasis on big creators, and where your smaller, lighter guards on court must be able to defend up to a certain standard and thrive off-ball on offense to win championships (Steph, Murray, Lowry, GP2, Caruso), Reed is the perfect prototype. In the Rockets’ long term vision, Reed Sheppard will be a key cornerstone. With all the surrounding talent, the question is who will join him.
Alperen Sengun has established himself as the most likely candidate. The closest comparison to Domantas Sabonis, Sengun has already established himself as a versatile offensive hub, with the sort of passing, post up play, and paint defense as a center that Sabonis was still developing at a comparable age. Domas is a more athletic prospect, which has helped propel him to greater heights as an efficient paint scorer, but Sengun’s hands are more reminiscent of Andre Drummond and might make him a better long term rim protector even if he’s more ground bound. Similar to Sabonis, I think the box score attributes might oversell Sengun’s play at the current moment. Both centers lack the sort of mobility or natural defensive awareness to act as full time paint protectors. In a league with Rudy Gobert, Anthony Davis, Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren, Evan Mobley, Bam Adebayo, Al Horford, etc., that sort of limited defensive coverage might potentially limit your championship upside if Sengun is a top 3 player on your roster. Neither Alpy nor Domas possesses the sort of scoring touch of a Nikola Jokic either and so there are limitations on the offensive upside of feeding them the rock in playoff settings. To maximize the individual players, you must funnel the offense through them and allow them to survey the floor from there, but the crux of their high quality individual looks come from within 5 feet of the paint and that’s a difficult way to live if you’re also not a premium defensive center. However, Alpy is still young and has already shown the sort of comfort as a driver and catch and shoot threat that few centers in the league can truly match. Last season, only 6 centers averaged more than 4 points per game shooting off of drives and 3 points per game from C&S situations: Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns (who was primarily a 4 last season), Chet Holmgren, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Alpy. That is an exclusive list of mismatch creating centers (with Victor Wembanyama only missing from the list because he chose to take pull-ups far more often than driving to the rim). Sengun just turned 22 and can improve a lot more physically over the next few seasons as he enters his prime. His shot is still a work in progress but his touch is so spectacular near and around the rim that I believe he can improve the balance on his two-footed jumper eventually. He’s a clear offensive focal point and Ime Udoka’s defensive lineups and the Rockets’ personnel helped him protect him last season defensively. 3-4 seasons down the line, perhaps that won’t even be as necessary anymore. In the meantime, the rest of the personnel provide defensive solidity, with breakout candidates galore.
As far as rookies go, the tandem of Cam Whitmore and Amen Thompson were one of the most intriguing duos league wide. Playing in the dunker spot in half court settings and as a point guard in transition, Amen showcased the full value of his skill set. He’s an excellent defender capable of producing steals as a primary defender on the perimeter and equally capable at sliding over and contesting shots as the low man. On offense, Amen still couldn’t shoot at all in half court settings, but he found other ways to provide value. He averaged 5.2 offensive rebounds per 100 possessions (a monstrous rate for a wing) and would routinely generate a vertical threat from the dunker spot. His clean up offense and cutting helped create extra opportunities for a sometimes inconsistent Rockets offense and helped mitigate some of his spacing concerns. On the fastbreak, Amen is a top tier NBA athlete with both the scoring prowess and the vision to boot. Whitmore and Jalen Green were his primary targets, as ready and capable 3 point shooters in transition. Speaking of Whitmore, he’s a Rockets player if I’ve ever met one. Almost all his offense either came from dunks, paint points, or 3s. Only 6.7% of his total shot attempts were further than 10 feet out from the hoop and in front of the 3 point line. Whitmore’s entire offense was primarily either catch and shoot 3s or predicated on drives and cuts to the rim for strong layups and dunks. His passing vision has always been under question and it might be what keeps him as a bench player. As evidence, he averaged a mere 1.8 assists per 100 possessions last year, while averaging almost 26 shot attempts per 100 possessions. The Rockets gave him a simple role and he filled it splendidly. He shot a spectacular 12.1 3s per 100 possessions and canned 36% of them. Among forwards to play more than 800 minutes on the season, only Sam Hauser, Trey Murphy, and Duncan Robinson shot more 3s per 100 possessions. It’s his clear raison d’etre for an otherwise middling to be low average 3 point shooting team. Defensively, Whitmore was passable but not great as a backup small. Nonetheless, you almost never see a rookie able to translate the combination of explosive offensive drives and high volume 3 point frequency all at once. If he can become an acceptable secondary passer and improve his free throw and 3 point percentage by smoothing out his jumper, Whitmore could be a long term starting 3 in the league. 4 players in, and I still haven’t mentioned two separate top-5 picks and another top 20 pick while mentioning young prospects.
Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. have settled into roles with this team. Tari is the havoc-creating defensive whirlwind with somewhat foul-prone tendencies capable of shifting a game with his enthusiasm and aggression. Offensively, he’s found a fantastic role as an offensive rebounder but everything else is quite questionable. His jumper isn’t respected, he doesn’t have the fluidity with his handle to attack and hold his line on drives consistently, and he’s a subpar below the rim finisher for the most part. You can’t really run offense around him as a hub either. Regardless, he’s the perfect backup 4 who can win you lots of regular season games, in the mold of a bigger Matisse Thybulle with more to offer offensively, especially if his handle and becomes better at driving from the perimeter long term. Jabari Smith Jr. on the other hand, has settled into his role as a starting 4. I wouldn’t say he’s shown enough for me as a shotblocker or vertical spacing threat for me to believe in him as a long term starting 5, but he’s a capable starting 4 who can soak up minutes and provide value spacing the court. He hasn’t yet earned the reps to take the pull-up 3s or create any of the shots he was known for as a prospect, but he’s already proven to be a useful player for a young Rockets team. Year 3 will be crucial to either cementing his role or expanding upon it because a few years down the line, prospects like Sheppard, Sengun, Whitmore, and Amen may crowd Jabari out and render him a 5th starter archetype. Maybe he’ll just be a P.J. Washington type, but Jabari might prove to be so much more. Jalen Green, on the other hand, might already be a known commodity.
Jalen set the league on fire after Alpy got hurt, with one of the best breakout months I can remember. He averaged 29 points per game and almost 4 assists per game on 61.8% true shooting and a 1.56 Assist-to-Turnover ratio from Feb 29 through March 29. The highlights were spectacular. As if awoken from a deep slumber, Jalen became far more aggressive hunting shots and driving to the rim to create for himself and for teammates. With Sengun no longer in the paint and with the coaching staff growing frustrated after a placid 3 month stretch on offense, Jalen accentuated the flashes and promise of his potential. Alas, by the end of the season, Ime benched him once more due to concerns about his effort. Jalen shot 42.2% from 3 on more than 10 3-point attempts per game over that month. However, for his career, Jalen attempts around 7 3s per game and cashes in a mere 33.7%. Unfortunately, that’s more reflective of Jalen’s true shooting ability. His release point is still too low to comfortably generate efficient 3 point shooting at a high volume. Even with slightly better shot selection, it might not improve his shooting value compared to most players in the league. Like Cam Thomas, the contest might bother Jalen’s shooting motion less than others, but it’s really the mechanics that hinder his percentages. With no rookie extension signed yet, Jalen has a big year. Last year was the first time he was consistently capable of holding his ground and switching at an acceptable level. Can he become more disruptive defensively, maintain the aggression even with a healthy Sengun taking up real estate in the paint, and tighten up the handle to limit turnovers? If not, he’s the most likely long term trade candidate on this roster.
With all these young players, where does this leave Houston? Ex-Grizzlies Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams are known capacities. Fred VanVleet was phenomenal once again and is technically only entering his age-30 season. This depth chart compares perhaps more favorably to a team like the Lakers or the Clippers if Kawhi is injured. Since the last West division preview, the Clippers have announced that Kawhi is unlikely to play preseason and prepared for contingencies in case the absence continues into the season. At full strength, the 2024 Houston Rockets should be competing for a play-in spot, and the first name to jump in if any team falls apart due to injury.
Memphis Grizzlies
2023-24 ranks:
Offensive Rating – 30th (107.2)
Defensive Rating – 12th (114.3)
Net Rating – 26th (-7.1)
Weighted Age – 25th (24.4)
Is it possible to be more injured than the 2023-24 Memphis Grizzlies. 9 games of Ja, 42 games of Desmond Bane, 20 games of Marcus Smart, a roster where only Jaren Jackson Jr. (66) and Santi Aldama (61) played more than 55 games. Just nasty. GG Jackson II and Scotty Pippen Jr. were sneaky impressive but the roles they occupied are unlikely to be the same ones they’ll have when the roster is healthy. Maybe the only instantly translatable performance came from Vince Williams. One of my favorite draft sleepers, VW Jr. provided typical low usage 3 and D value with the shot blocking of a power forward. He’s a clear keeper destined for a big role with the club in 2024-25. What’s a reasonable expectation from this roster? Hard to say. They replaced almost their entire staff, leaving only Taylor Jenkins and two assistants: Anthony Carter (son of Devin Carter) and Patrick St. Andrews (former Budenholzer assistant). Both assistants only joined in 2023. What does that mean about Taylor Jenkins’ job security? It sure seems like those are moves you’d make when your coach is on a hot seat and reporting from John Hollinger suggested as much. After a season with Jaren, Bismack Biyombo, and Trey Jemison cobbling together center minutes, Memphis now had Zach Edey. Jaren can’t finish at the rim through contact and can’t provide the vertical spacing or rebounding required from a real 5 and playing the 5 minimizes his best attribute: his ability to help from the weak side and swat shots with reckless abandon and minimal consequences. Memphis is likely to be the most improved team in the league, but how much will that improve their seeding? Say what you will about last year’s makeshift offense but they shot a lot of 3 pointers. Memphis was 5th in the league in 3 point attempts per 100 possessions and 29th in accuracy on those attempts. Ja doesn’t shoot a lot of 3s, Smart’s not an accurate shooter, and more minutes with a traditional center like Edey introduces more clogged spacing and further limits attempt rates from 3. You look up and down this roster. Who really has a history of being an accurate, high volume marksman from deep? GG Jackson doesn’t have a great history, Vince Williams Jr. and Scotty Pippen Jr. are low volume guys. It’s really just Desmond Bane and Luke Kennard who can strike fear in opponents from deep. And therein lies the problem. The Grizzlies have only one way to defeat you. Attack in transition with the best point guard in transition in the league. Attack opponents on the glass and limit their scoring effectiveness near the rim with the sheer size of their wings and their two-big alignments. That’s really it. In the East, that might work. In the West, that’s a tough way to live. The Knicks were reported to be interested in trading for Marcus Smart and maybe Memphis will try to orchestrate a three team trade at the deadline to bring in someone more complementary to Morant. Otherwise, this team might just lack the firepower to compete in the West. They’re too dependent on a rookie center and on a small point guard who’s always liable to miss 20-25 games with a play style predicated on ambitious dunks and heavy, bruising falls. Despite having a deep roster, it’s hard for me to paint a picture for Memphis where they are anything more than the 12 seed. Much like Houston, the best thing they can do is to stay ready in case any other team falls apart due to injury. Then again, looking at their history, one might say Memphis is the team most likely to fall apart in that fashion. It sounds disappointing, but Ja Morant is spectacular and their young core has spark. It might just be too much, too soon.
San Antonio Spurs
2023-24 ranks:
Offensive Rating – 26th (110.0)
Defensive Rating – 22nd (116.4)
Net Rating – 24th (-6.4)
Weighted Age – 30th (23.0)
We start with Victor! The Spurs man! Devonte’ Graham was the oldest player on that team in 2023-24. Sandro Mamukelashvili was showing something. The Spurs finished 7-4 after being 15-56, including a rousing victory over Denver towards the end of the season that completely altered the playoff bracket. The vibes are immaculate at the moment and the promise for a brighter future exists. Wemby, Devin Vassell, and Tre Jones were their 3 key players last season. Spurs reddit fan optimism is through the roof. A 2026 playoff berth feels an achievable goal, with Wemby potentially playing at an MVP level by then and Vassell and Tre Jones firmly in their primes. The two youngest teams last season, the only ones with an average age under 23.5, were the Spurs and the best regular season team in the conference: OKC. The Spurs had some incredibly promising lineup data last season with key pillars of their roster. The trio of Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, and Wemby was +10.0 per 100 possessions in 794 minutes played. Their best lineup of
T.Jones – D.Vassell – K.Johnson – J.Sochan – V.Wembanyama
was +25.6 per 100 on CtG in 297 minutes played. Say toodle-oo to Blake Wesley, Doug McDermott, and Malaki Branham minutes. The 2024-25 Spurs don’t need them anymore. These Spurs have made 3 massive, notable improvements through free agency, a trade, and the draft.
Let’s start with the future HOFer CP3. The Spurs have naturally tried to down the rumors of New Lob City, but it’s easy to see where they come from. Wemby is one of the most active off-ball big men of all time and CP3 is one of the best lob throwers this sport has ever seen. Even in preseason, with most of the Spurs looking rustier than normal, you could still see the highlight flashes of Chris Paul playing a 2 man game with Victor. Even in his post-post-prime, Chris Paul is just so much better than anyone else on San Antonio’s roster at orchestrating an offense, surveying the court, and reacting with precision. The jumper and defensive agility weren’t what they were even 2 seasons ago, but even a fading CP3 can be momentarily rejuvenated by playing with the best big man he’s ever had the fortune of calling his teammate. According to reports, Wemby has apparently added 25 pounds to his frame and perhaps my eyes were playing tricks on me but I thought I could really notice the difference in preseason. He seemed stronger through contact and I thought his screens seemed even sturdier. Visually, he also just looked bigger, if that counts for anything. I thought Wemby was a 2nd team All-NBA center last season. Who knows what the limits are with added weight and a guaranteed 48 minutes of quality point guard play thanks to the reliable CP3 and Tre Jones. Perhaps he could generate more drives off of attacking closeouts instead of settling for pull-ups as he often did as a rookie. Perhaps he finishes the year with 250 dunks instead of the 165 from his rookie season. Victor had arguably one of the 5-6 best rookie seasons of all time. Could he make a run for MVP? Maybe not, but First Team All-NBA is on the table. That’s the combination of talent and hard work that Victor brings to the table. He might now finally have the building blocks to complement his game.
Adding Harrison Barnes doesn’t sound like a big deal in 2024-25, but it’s massive for a team that was leaking minutes at the forward position. Depending too much on a raw Jeremy Sochan, Cedi Osman, and Doug McDermott is not the way to go. Harrison might be a more limited player at age 32, but there’s still 2 things he can do exceptionally well: Finish in the paint and shoot. Last year, 88% of Barnes’ shots came from either within 8 feet of the hoop or from 3. He shot 60% on shots near the rim and almost 39% from 3. Not too shabby. His hip fluidity is compromised, he can’t drive to the hoop the way he used to, and he’s never offered much as a passer, but Barnes can still cut and finish possessions with the best of them. On a young team searching for a baseline level of play from the power forward position and with at least 3 players commanding a majority of the touches (Wemby, Vassell, and CP3), Barnes is a perfect fit.
The last major addition may be the most important of them all. San Antonio added Stephon Castle 4th overall in the draft and early returns have been exciting. Camp reports and media questions towards the staff and fellow players have all painted Castle as a quick study and extremely versatile player. I covered Castle in some depth here, and all those reasons still apply. In Summer League and through a limited preseason run, Castle has appeared more comfortable as a pull-up threat than I imagined and his drive and kick game has benefited significantly from the almost perfect spacing of NBA floors. His IQ has always been phenomenal but adding the skills to his physical gifts and mental acumen may be happening faster than I predicted. San Antonio was always a perfect incubator for a wing with Castle’s skillset and it may not be long before he’s worthy of being a closer for this group. He plays with pace and tempo, but with multiple different speeds. He combines the defensive upside of Jeremy Sochan with the playmaking feel of a point guard and a jumper that may soon be comparable to Keldon Johnson. Other than Reed Sheppard, there is perhaps no rookie I’m more excited to watch at the NBA level. My hope is that the closing lineup by March is CP3, Vassell, Castle, Barnes, and Wemby. That’s a fierce group capable of beating almost anyone on a given day. I haven’t even mentioned Devin Vassell yet, a solid wing who continually improves and will immediately slot in with less of a playmaking burden this season (when he returns from injury). Keldon Johnson is a great shooting big off the bench, Jeremy Sochan is still a work in progress offensively but is a proven capable defensive forward. Sandro and Julian Champagnie provide capable forward play off the bench. San Antonio just has far more minutes dedicated towards quality NBA players than they’ve had at any time in their past. What does that mean? It means they should expect to finish 13th in this conference (ahead of Utah and Portland), but that they can realistically dream of making the play-in if Castle, Vassell, and Wemby all take massive leaps. I look forward to watching them play. The Spurs are back!
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