Welcome to the NTC season preview series! Over the next several weeks, we will attempt to bring you the most in depth analysis possible about all 30 teams in both written and podcast formats leading up to the tip-off of the 2024-25 NBA season. We have split the segments up by division, so we will provide previews for five teams per week for a total of six weeks. Within each team preview, you will find a short recap of how they finished their 2023-24 seasons, key players to watch, what their goals for next season might be, and more. We hope you enjoy the ride. Feel free to contact us with any questions or comments you may have! With that being said, let’s get to it.
Previous Division: Southwest
Next Division: Northwest
Chicago Bulls
2024-25 ranks:
Offense – 19th (114.9)
Defense – 21st (116.3)
Net Rating – 20th (-1.5)
Weighted Age – 7th (28.1)
Late Season Turnaround
On the night of November 28th, 2023, the Chicago Bulls suffered a 124-97 defeat at the hands of the Milwaukee Bucks. It capped off a five game losing streak that was so crippling, it threatened to derail their entire season before Christmas. They had a record of 5-14 through 19 games and hope was fading fast. While the Bulls never completely reversed their disastrous start to the season, they did get a lot of things right from that point on which led to a major uptick in production and wins. They came out victorious in eight of their next eleven games and managed to finish just four games under .500 at the end of the regular season at 39-43. Despite their renewed competitiveness and strides from multiple rotational pieces, they did suffer an eventual defeat in the Play-In Tournament to the Miami Heat for the second year in a row. One major catalyst for that upswing was the play of who arguably should have been the Most Improved Player last season, Coby White. After struggling with consistency and efficiency over the course of his rookie contract, it all clicked for him in year five, averaging 19 points per game, almost ten more than the previous season. His emergence as a go to weapon in the half-court to generate clean looks was massive and now the three year, $33 million deal he signed last summer looks like an absolute steal. In the midst of what was a tumultuous season at times, White offered a breath of fresh air and a renewed outlook on the future of the backcourt of the team.
The combo had the ultimate green light to dominate the ball and look for his own shot last season due in part to an unfortunate injury to Zach LaVine. LaVine had pockets of his usual All-Star impact at times, including a masterful 51 point performance in the 3rd game of the season, but missed the full month of December with an ailment, and returned in January, just to be shut down for good after seven more contests due to a foot injury. His absence was unfortunate, but simplified the Bulls rotation enough for Ayo Dosunmu to get consistent minutes. The third year Chicago native went from playing around 26 minutes per contest before LaVine’s injury to 36 a night. His confidence offensively was a great sight to see, although it came at the cost of some of his typical defensive impact. Going into the final year of his rookie deal, it would be great to see him maintain that efficient play while also being a perimeter pest that can fill in somewhat for the departed Alex Caruso.
Losing DeRozan & Caruso
Speaking of Caruso, he was a very important part of the Bulls organization for the three years he was on board. He was an All-Defensive team member each of the last two seasons, knocked down threes reliability, and was just generally a pro’s pro for a team that at times lacked some direction and discipline. He won the NBA Hustle Award for 2023-24, which is a perfect reflection of the winning ways that rubbed off on the rest of the team at times. Bulls management probably should have made the decision to move off of him a year ago, or at least at the trade deadline, but once again elected to hold on to him in order to chase faint dreams of their first official playoff berth since 2022. That of course did not come to pass and they finally came to the realization that the Caruso/DeRozan/Vucevic core had run its course and run into a glass ceiling. Whether or not the Bulls got enough back in the trade that shipped Caruso off to OKC is open to debate (no draft capital guys? really?), but at least they were able to avoid losing him for nothing in 2025 free agency and get Josh Giddey back in return. DeRozan however, did have the opportunity to explore the open market this summer and to nobody’s surprise, decided to take his talents to a franchise that features more established players and a somewhat clearer path to a playoff appearance. At 35 years old, his window of opportunity in the NBA is closing and it makes more sense to chase one last chance at real team success. Even though he is now in his mid thirties, he had another impressive season with Chicago and that will be tough to replace internally. He was highly effective inside the arc, balanced his scoring duties with creating for others quite well, and carried the team through stressful end game moments. He has finished top three in Clutch Player of the Year voting two years running, so now that he is gone, Chicago will be tasked with finding another player who can reliably create good looks when things get tight in clutch time. Coby White may be up to the task and LaVine is still on the roster (for now), so maybe that objective won’t be overly difficult to cross off the to-do list. Still, DeRozan did a lot of good for the Bulls and the time has now come to search for a way to replace that All-Star ish sized hole in the frontcourt. They could look to do that by committee, but that is a strategy that is more easily said than done.
Trade for Giddey
The first piece of the puzzle when it comes to replacing DeRozan’s former impact is the newly acquired Josh Giddey. The Bulls saw an underutilized player that had worn out his welcome in OKC and brought him in to hopefully unlock a level of his game that has yet to be realized. His lack of long-range shooting was a poor fit for a Thunder team that was on the doorstep of contention and couldn’t live with that glaring flaw in his game, especially when paired with his need to have the ball in his hands. They have plenty of on-the-ball creation with SGA, JDub, and others, so it was clearly time for him to move on. The full trade was only a player for player swap between him and Caruso, so there is clearly a ton of faith being placed in the upside of Giddey. The reasons for that faith are easy to see on paper, even coming off of a less than stellar 3rd season. First of all, Giddey is still only 22 years old. Some players don’t even enter the league until this age. Second, he has a history of very solid all-around production. Back in 2021, he made the All-Rookie second team and the next year, he posted per game averages of 16.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists. This summer, he was selected to the Austrian national team and performed well on the biggest basketball stage in the world. It won’t be easy to incorporate Giddey into a backcourt that already features White, Lavine, and Dosunmu, but if they can find a way to optimize him in lineups that give him the freedom to make plays on the ball and also not be a complete liability off of it, he could get back to his sophomore year production, or exceed it. Let’s not forget that Giddey is one of the games most creative passers. That is a skill not to be taken lightly. There aren’t an abundance of proficient shooters on the roster, but it’s fun to imagine scenarios in which players get easy points cutting to the rim, or curling off screens for threes after receiving pinpoint bullets from the Australian wonder.
Patrick Williams Contract
The Giddey trade wasn’t the only major move the Bulls made this offseason. They also gave forward Patrick Williams a five year contract worth a total of $90 million. It was certainly an interesting choice to make for a player who is averaging less than ten points per game for his career, but he is one of their best defenders and routinely shoots close to 40% on threes, which is immensely valuable to any team and most definitely the Bulls here. The length is somewhat questionable, but an AAV of under $20 million isn’t too bad for a 23 year old 3 & D forward with upside left to explore. Even though he is armed with new money, it doesn’t mean this coming season doesn’t hold significant importance for Williams. He is by far their best option next to Vucevic and will be relied on to take on some of the most difficult defensive assignments in the league. The next step in Williams’ game will be to lean into putting more pressure on the rim and becoming more effective in his offense outside of the three point line. Some players are comfortable around the basket and need to find ways to work to the perimeter, but the opposite is true for Williams. He only converted 54% of his shots at the rim last season, which placed him in the 8th percentile in the league for his position via Cleaning the Glass. Even the mid range, which has been known as a comfort zone of sorts for him, hasn’t served him very well either. He’s been just below league average there, so that could stand to take a small jump. The Bulls probably aren’t expecting him to magically morph into a primary offensive option overnight, but it would take pressure off of some of the other players he will be sharing the floor with if he could be a legitimate threat to make plays with the ball once he is run off the three point line, similar to how Duncan Robinson and Keegan Murray implemented more diversity into their games. His progress will be key for Chicago’s future and this makes him a must watch player during the course of their season.
Changing course & crowded backcourt
This is a new dawn for the Bulls and that fact will almost certainly play out in the standings throughout the season. The pieces will take some time to come together and there is no longer a singular star talent around to make things easier for everyone. It will be an uphill battle most of the way just to get back to the play-in purgatory area that they often found themselves in over the past two years. Regardless of how many Ls the team picks up throughout the season however, one young player’s acclimation to the league will be worth watching on a nightly basis: Matas Buzelis. Chicago selected the hometown kid with their 11th pick in this year’s draft and although it is a very small sample to this point, he has proved he is capable of living up to the billing. His Summer League was solid, although he only shot 33% from the field and 21% from three. Even in the face of rough shooting nights, he showed off a knack for calmly creating his own shot and affecting opponents shots from the weak side. The two blocks and steals per game in Vegas definitely jump off the page. That potential on the less glamorous side of the ball has carried over into the preseason as well. In Chicago’s first game against Cleveland, he held his own against dynamite guards Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. If Giddey continues to struggle with staying in front of attacking players, Buzelis’ role will become that much more important. The intrigue surrounding him is based on his ability to be a smooth scorer with defensive chops. In year one, he will probably run into some issues due to his slender frame, but that is an issue that can be easily addressed in the coming seasons. In the meantime, It will be interesting to see how much the game slows down for him. The raw production won’t be as important as his process and how that all bears out on the tape, especially in a transitory season like this one. The low expectations surrounding this team could serve to benefit Buzelis as he slowly acclimates to the pros and possibly challenges for a starting spot somewhere along the way.
Can they make the play-in?
The final result for the Bulls’ season will depend heavily on how the backcourt comes together. There are tons of mouths to feed now that Giddey is on board and Lonzo Ball has fully recovered from knee injury complications that sidelined him for two years. Ball may never be in a position to be a full-time starter again, but at the very least, he could provide some back end support as a premier passer that could be much more stout as a perimeter stopper. Considering the setbacks he has endured and how close he came to an abrupt end to his playing career, the simple fact that he is on track to make his long awaited return and could have a real role in a NBA rotation is a major accomplishment. Based on the way the roster has been constructed and what they have displayed as a unit so far in preseason, there is a real chance that they aren’t able to get enough stops to be a competitive team all season long. Giddey will have his hands full at the point of attack, Vucevic is another year older and has never been much of a rim deterrent, and Lavine can’t be counted on to be a reliable defender either. Teams that aren’t elite offensively typically don’t hold up very well if they can’t keep the competition in check and that is looking to be the case here. If the team decides to start Giddey/White/Lavine, it could mean easy looks for the opponent all game long, but would introduce some fun bucket getting possibilities since all the best talent would be sharing the floor together. For the sake of Donovan’s mental health however, it might be better to start Dosunmu to provide some semblance of perimeter resistance. Either way, evaluation and development still top the priority list for this franchise after finally starting to tear down the foundation of the previous group. Will Talen Horton Tucker find a home in his hometown after wandering a bit the past few seasons? Can E.J. Liddell stay healthy and crack the rotation? Is Dalen Terry ready to take the next step? Can Chris Duarte rediscover the form from his 2021-22 All-Rookie team run? These are just a few questions that will hopefully be answered by the bench unit over the next six months and alert management of who is worth hanging on to and who will also be shipped off to their next stop.
Cleveland Cavaliers
2024-25 ranks:
Offense – 18th (115.2)
Defense – 6th (112.7)
Net Rating – 13th (+2.5)
Weighted Age – 15th (26.2)
Splits with and without big men
The Cavaliers had a successful, yet inconsistent season in 2023-24. At one point, the team was blasting the competition and sat pretty with a record of 35-16. At their best point, they won 17 out of 18 games while scoring close to 120 points per contest. An interesting development formed during that span, however. The Cavs were working through an injury to Evan Mobley, which forced them to modify the starting lineup and slot in players like Dean Wade to pick up the slack. Cleveland has historically committed to traditional double big lineups to begin games, but when they were forced to go with more modern configurations that involved just one big man and a floor spacer at the four, their offense exploded. Their second most played lineup last season was Garland/Strus/Okoro/Wade/Allen with 484 total possessions and they posted a +20.7 efficiency differential per CTG. Interestingly enough, their most used lineup was the typical starting unit of Garland/Mitchell/Stus/Mobley/Allen and they were merely average together with a +2.3 efficiency differential in 765 possessions. The trend continued for other lineups that they ran out each night. When Mobley shared the floor with Allen, their offense suffered and the defense wasn’t stout enough to compensate. It is easy to see why the single big lineups did so well though. Allen is an excellent screen and roll big and when he doesn’t have to worry about Mobley clogging up the floor with his lack of spacing, it gives him more freedom to play his game as he is accustomed to. On the whole for Allen, it was a very inspiring season, as he averaged the most points per game of his career (16.5) and the second most rebounds per game (10.5). He also finished 10th in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
1st round series grind
The season didn’t quite go the way that Mobley and his camp had envisioned going into the season, however. As previously mentioned, he missed a good chunk of time in the middle of the season recovering from an ankle injury. This caused him to play in just 50 games, by far the lowest in his brief career. He also didn’t have quite the same defensive impact we’ve come to expect from him. On the other hand, he did show glimpses of developing a semblance of an outside shot as his 38% mark from three indicated. He only took 58 shots from there total, but it was still a welcome sign of growth. He also shot a couple percentage points better from the mid range and from the free throw line. If he boosts his shot frequency further this coming season and maintains even average efficiency marks, it could radically change the fortunes for the Cavaliers. If he wants to deliver on the massive financial investment that the team made in him this summer, he will need to find a way to fit better next to Allen. That is at the top of the minds of management after they advanced to the second round for the first time since LeBron was on the roster. To get there, they slogged their way through a seven round marathon against the Orlando Magic, who while improved, are still quite young and maybe should not have been such a stiff opponent for a team with real championship aspirations. It is also worth pointing out that Allen did miss most of their postseason run with a cracked rib that he suffered in game 4 of the first round.
Coaching change
Despite the fact that the Cavaliers won 48 games, secured homecourt advantage in the Eastern Conference playoffs, and won a playoff series for the first time since 2018, J.B. Bickerstaff was let go during the offseason. Fair or not, the NBA moves quickly and does not hesitate to make changes when it is determined a member of an organization leaves something to be desired. He did a wonderful job developing the homegrown talent and maximizing star guard Donovan Mitchell, but the powers that be decided that he would not be capable of helping them accomplish their ultimate goal of bringing a second championship to the land. They replaced him with Kenny Atkinson, who has been in line for multiple head coaching jobs since he was released by the Brooklyn Nets in 2020 comes in with a wonderful track record and reputation due to what he was able to accomplish while in Brooklyn. He inherited a team in 2016 with very little talent and a bleak future outlook and helped transform them into a playoff team, securing 42 wins in the 2018-19 campaign. His mission will be much different in Cleveland, however. He will take over a team that has already tasted playoff success and would like very much to build on that going forward. He will face much more pressure than he did at his last head coaching stop, but if he is able to get this team to the conference finals or better, he will put himself in truly special company as one of the few men who was able to lead a Cleveland team into championship territory.
Retaining the core in the offseason
The Cavs stayed busy during the offseason, taking care of their core by supplying them with new future money. Donovan Mitchell was given a three year, $150 million deal, Jarrett Allen got a three year, $91 million extension, Evan Mobley got $224 million over an additional five years, and even Issac Okoro got a three year, $38 million deal in Restricted Free Agency. Okoro was somewhat a surprise to some, but his defense at the 3 and 4 positions is something the Cavs need and he has upped his shooting to a point where it is no longer a negative in his game. On the contrary, it is actually above average. He hit 39% last season, which placed him in the 73rd percentile for wings. Not bad at all for someone that was only at 30% his rookie season. Despite this clear growth in his game, he will need to add some element of off the dribble game in order to be a viable option come playoff time. If that happens, maybe the team will finally stop hunting for a star or near star player to add to the wing rotation. In light of their expensive offseason, it is obvious that the organization values the potential that these players have individually, and more importantly, as a unit. There were talks that Jarrett Allen, or Darius Garland could be dealt to another team, but they resisted the rumors and kept everyone in the fold. It’s also notable that Donovan Mitchell decided to put his trust in Cleveland and stick around, when he could have easily bypassed the money this year and entered Unrestricted Free Agency next summer instead. Mitchell is coming off of two very impressive years in Cleveland that have involved breaking into the All-NBA team and the fringes of the MVP conversation. If this team has real hopes of having another win filled season, Mitchell will need to maintain that level of play and be more available as 55 games last season was a bit low and knocked him out of end of season award conversations. The vibes surrounding the team are highly positive right now for good reason, but will the pieces gel enough to keep it going? Mitchell shares the backcourt with another smaller guard in Garland, who also isn’t exactly a defensive stopper. Is it really worth doubling down on that awkward fit? Maybe it is. Let’s not forget that Garland is a dangerous long range shooter with excellent handling skills. He is also unselfish and had his own All-Star caliber season just two years ago. He is owed $163 million over the next four years, but needs to have a strong season with limited injuries to inject full trust back into his long-term future there.
Jaylon Tyson Summer League & Rookie Role
It was also an encouraging time for Cleveland over the summer because of the play of Jaylon Tyson, their 20th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. He didn’t get a ton of fanfare going into play in Vegas, but caught the eyes of many with his standout performance. In the final two games of his Summer League stint, he put up 44 points on 15-19 shooting to go along with 16 rebounds and 12 assists. His efficiency also shined with a 50/40/90 shooting display. He is a bit of an older rookie at 21 years old, but he has the savvy of a NBA vet with precise footwork, a tight handle, and clean jump shot. He rarely looked sped up in his Summer League appearances, instead reliably running pick and rolls and dissecting the opponent’s defense in multiple ways. He will certainly have opportunities to show off his game at times during the season, but when the team is at full strength, he will have to compete with Sam Merill, and Max Strus for minutes. Despite these obstacles however, it is clear that the Cavs could have a real impact player on their hands and he needs reps in the NBA or G League so that his potential can be fully explored. There were concerns when he was drafted that he would be limited by his lack of NBA athleticism and it still remains to be seen if that could hamper him when the games begin to matter, but at the very least, Tyson could offer a refreshing look at the off guard spot. He could share minutes with the rising sophomore Craig Porter Jr., who showed positive signs for Cleveland last year as a small, yet crafty guard. Does he get more court time this season now that he has a bit of experience under his belt? It’s possible, but the roster hasn’t changed all that much, so the same hurdles remain. Keep a close eye on Garland’s health, as any missed time could mean an extended look at Porter jr.
Team leap coming?
So where will this team end up in the Eastern Conference? The baseline for this squad seems strong, as the defensive infrastructure is on track to be strong again since the twin towers will play a ton of minutes together again. Even if they finish top ten in defensive efficiency again, they will need to find a way to balance that with a stout offense this time around. Even though they added shooters Max Strus and Georges Niang last offseason, they dropped to 18th in that area. Their impact was not felt on a teamwide level, as they finished 15th in the league in three point percentage, which was exactly the same as the year before. The idea was to surround creators and finishers with more shooting to round things out, but that simply was not the case. Injuries and awkward lineup fits are mostly to blame, but there is a chance the same issues rear their ugly heads this time around. Mitchell and Garland are vulnerable to get beat and battered, pulling them out of action. Allen and Mobley also sometimes suffer bad luck ailments that knock them out of action for a few several weeks at a time. When it comes to the lineups, it will be hard for Kenny Atkinson to push the right buttons that don’t leave them too vulnerable on either end of the court. Overall, there is a ton of pressure, as well as opportunity here for the Cavs.
Detroit Pistons
2024-25 ranks:
Offense – 27th (109.7)
Defense – 26th (118.8)
Net Rating – 28th (-9.1)
Weighted Age – 17th (26.1)
Pitfalls of last season
To say it was a turbulent 2023-24 season for the Motor City would be a massive understatement. It was literally the worst season in franchise history by record (14-68) and longest total losing streak (28 consecutive games). The players and the coaching staff often had no idea what they were doing and were not able to form any kind of legitimate identity. Even the development of their talented young core was minimal at best and former Head Coach Monty Williams probably deserves most of the blame on that front. The Pistons brought in Williams, who was highly regarded by his peers and heavily respected around the league due to his exploits in prior coaching stops in New Orleans, and Phoenix. In New Orleans, he helped a floundering post Chris Paul unit rebound back to a +.500 record and make the playoffs in 2015. During his time with the Suns, he was a huge reason why they reached the Finals for the first time since 1993. On paper, it made sense to bring him in for the purpose of establishing order and stability for a franchise that has only sniffed the playoffs twice since 2009. The team was so confident in his ability to turn things around that he was given a six year, $78.5 million dollar deal. The first season was such a disappointment however, that the team felt it was better to eat the five remaining seasons and let him go. That is a brutal blow for a team that needs to become relevant and respectable again in the worst way possible.
Silver linings of losing/Ron Holland Selection
One silver lining of a losing season is the right to select a high draft pick just two months after the final game is played, unless your pick belongs to another team (sorry Brooklyn). Amazingly, the Pistons secured the 5th overall pick for the third year in a row, which they used to bring in Ron Holland II, who was a part of the final G League Ignite team in history. The 19 year old Holland is a somewhat risky pick, but the upside play is obvious. He is a tenacious competitor with outstanding athleticism for the wing position and gets after it on the defensive end. He will need to work on the jumpshot, which is a common theme among several members of the Pistons, so he should fit right in there. That limitation will make it difficult for him to share the court with certain configurations of players. Additionally, minutes will be tough to come by in general on a team that is looking to finally move up the standings, but he should see some time based on his potential to become a potent two way player. The coaching staff will be tasked with helping him harness his skills so that he plays within himself and the instances of him getting out of control are limited. At the same time though, he needs to have enough freedom to be himself, which means running the break, attacking the basket aggressively, and just serving as an energizer bunny. That balance is very tough to master and the degree to which he achieves that will determine how successful he is overall as a player. Rookie of the year is a worthy goal for him to pursue, but there might not be enough minutes available for him to gain serious consideration, outside of injuries. I’m sure that the team will be happy if he simply gets selected to an All-Rookie team and shows general signs of growth as the months roll on.
Ausar Thompson Thoughts
Another young wing with a shaky jumpshot is Ausar Thompson, who the team selected with their 5th pick in the 2023 draft. The similarities between him and the aforementioned Holland are striking. They are about the same size, play the same position, both have incredible quickness and burst, and both struggle to shoot the ball…a lot. How about this for similar: Holland was a 23% shooter with the Ignite last season, while Thompson finished his first season with Detroit at 18%. Two sub 25% three point shooters who are not bigs on the same team is pretty crazy to think about. Thompson can also be compared to Holland when it comes to their ability to stop the ball, although Ausar is probably a bit more advanced in that area as of now. Focusing in on the former Overtime Elite star for a moment, he made quite the impression in year one. He was in serious consideration for an All-Rookie Team spot and is already recognized as an elite pest on defense. As mentioned before, the number one shortcoming in his game that stood out in his 63 appearances and 38 starts is his jumpshot, or lack thereof. He made just 21 of his 113 attempts, which is poor from both a frequency and accuracy standpoint. Until he shows considerable growth in that area, he will cramp the floor for any other players he shares the floor with. We will see if he is able to show even a glimmer of hope from beyond the three point line this season. This development will be very important to monitor as it is a critical swing skill that will determine if he settles in as just a solid utility player with limited appeal in playoff settings, or a true jack of all trades guy who ends up becoming a pillar of the future for his current team.
Huge seasons for Ivey & Duren
While we are deep diving on young players, it was a real shame that 2022 lottery pick Jaden Ivey’s progression stagnated for the most part. All of his statistics were either equal to, or down from the season before and he didn’t get the same opportunities under Williams that he got during his rookie season. He averaged 15.8 PPG, 3.7 REB, and 4.5 AST his first year, which earned him All-Rookie Team honors and a 6th place finish on the Rookie of the Year ballot. He struggled defensively at times as evidenced by a negative Defensive Box Plus Minus that has been negative every season so far and a foul rate is in the bottom 20th percentile. Still, to see his minutes per game slashed from 31 to just 26 last season was still a surprise to most. He also picked up a few DNPs along the way, which probably went a long way towards hampering his growth. Talented young players need to know generally what their role will be from night to night and that was just not the case for Ivey most of the way. We covered his odd role on the Pistons last season at length during our Sophomore Summit podcast back in January and things did not get much better for him in the following that recording, even when it was apparent that the season was lost. I also highlighted him as a prime breakout candidate for this coming season in a recent episode. So far this preseason, it looks like he might have turned a corner.
He has played four preseason games as of the date of this article and has averaged over 18 points per contest. More importantly however, the shot looks much improved. He has hit 60% of his field goal attempts and almost 53% of his three point looks. Even his free throws have been on point at 85.7%. That was a notable weakness for him last year, when he finished at just 71% from the stripe. He needs to be able to convert the easy opportunities with how easy it is for him to blow by defenders. Most of these numbers aren’t sustainable over a full season obviously, but if he even hits 35% to 36% of his long range looks and improves in the floater range, he will be a very dangerous player at all times. He already has incredible athletic abilities that cause him to look like Ja Morant at times and he is a willing distributor. Scoring efficiency is the missing link that could be found this season under a new coaching and revamped roster that includes more veteran presence and shooting.
It will also be a critical season for third year big man Jalen Duren. Averaging a double double is no small feat, yet he accomplished it at just 20 years old. At 6’10”, 250 pounds, he is a physician specimen that feasts around the rim. He finishes lobs well, inhales rebounds, and is a decent shot blocker. The next step for him in 2024-24 will be to refine his overall game. His bball iq isn’t amazing and that is most evident when he is on defense. He can frequently be caught out of position and jumps quite a bit to hunt for blocks. He also fouls a bit too much. If he can bring these things under control, it will allow him to rise into the upper echelon of centers and heighten his ceiling that much more. He will be eligible to sign a rookie scale extension next fall, so he needs to take this coming campaign very seriously and make sure that the Pistons feel good about giving him a large sum of money over the next several years.
Adding veterans in the offseason
There was a clear focus this offseason for the Pistons when it came to the type of players they brought in. Veteran shooters Tim Hardaway Jr., Tobias Harris, and Malik Beasley are now on board to provide much needed space on the court for Ivey, Cunningham, others when they decide to get busy and look for their own shot. Hardaway Jr. and Harris might be coming off not so great performances at the tail end of last season, but they can heat up in a hurry, have solid shooting percentages over the course of their long careers, and they won’t be able to be left alone on the outside like opponents can get away with when Thompson and other non-shooters are present. Prior to all that, Detroit pulled off a trade with the Jazz that brought back Italian forward Simone Fontecchio. He proved himself as another no nonsense space in his 16 games that he played with the team last season, hitting a scorching 42% of his threes on 6.3 attempts a game. He is another excellent guy to have on a team that finished last season 26th in three point percentage and 29th in total attempts. Expect both of those marks to increase by a decent amount going forward. The team was so impressed with the limited seat time Fontecchio had with them that they extended a two year, $16 million dollar extension to him less than a week following the opening of free agency. Not only will these players help the Pistons to achieve more of a modern shot distribution, but they will bring tons of NBA experience to the table, which includes playoff games. Hardaway Jr. is coming off an impressive NBA Finals run with the Mavericks. Harris will see significant time and is the presumed starter heading into opening week, but the role of the others will probably fluctuate between heavy bench minutes and DNP, depending on who’s healthy, the nightly opponents, and many other factors that are sure to change over the course of 82 games. The expectation is that by simply having these positive influences in the locker room, the win total will creep up and if they bring anything to the table on the court, that total will rise even more.
New coach alert
There will be a new face in the head honcho chair this coming season as well. J.B Bickerstaff will take the place of the much maligned Monty Williams and like his predecessor, he brings an outstanding reputation that was solidified during his years with the Cleveland Cavaliers. It’s been rumored that he was let go due to a rough relationship with Donovan Mitchell, but that is neither here nor there. The important part of this new equation is the fact that Bickerstaff has a track record of winning, at least in the short term. He has racked up 143 wins over the last three years and got Cleveland to the second round this past spring. There is no doubt that he has what it takes to help a struggling franchise rise from the ashes. It will be interesting to see what kind of influence he has over the team and how their style of play changes, if any. Coach Williams frequently emphasized defensive impact, which is fine in a vacuum, but it often came at the expense of spacing and shot creation. Bickerstaff has captained much better offenses in Cleveland, even with the sometimes clunky fits of the twin tower lineups, as I touched on in that section of the division preview. We’ve already seen some of his influence in the preseason, as Ivey has been given more freedom to be himself by pushing the pace and looking for his own shot more often. This combined with the plus spacing lineups now available as a result of offseason additions could equate to an offense that is much more potent than the one that finished 27th last season.
How do they all fit?
The next logical question to ask is how this all effects star guard, Cade Cunningham. Cunningham was given a full max rookie extension worth a whopping $224 million over a period of five years. He is officially looked at as the cornerstone of the Piston franchise and they trust him to lead them out of the dark ages into an era of prosperity. Now that his salary occupies a much larger share of the team salary cap at 25%, there are substantially higher expectations thrust on him. He has always been a stat sheet stuffer, but the overall efficiency has been up and down and he’s had major issues taking care of the ball, finishing with at least 3.3 turnovers per game each of his three seasons so far. Now that he has more respectable shooters around him, both of those facets of his game should improve. It can be argued that no other star caliber player in the NBA has been dealt a worse hand from the time he was drafted until now. There have been multiple coaching changes, poor roster fits, and an overall lack of direction from the moment he hit an NBA floor. It’s very possible that in an ideal environment, Cade could explode into a true league superstar. It is a very lofty bar to hit and it is not incredibly likely, but don’t be surprised if we see insane numbers from the former Oklahoma guard right out of the gate and even later on in the season. At 6’6”, with good strength and above average court vision, he is a walking mismatch that is guaranteed to register at least 20/5/5 every season, and the expectation should be closer to 25/6/8 if everything lines up properly this season. The sky is the limit for this unique guard and that is a very exciting idea for the Detroit faithful.
How much better can they get?
This team may still be a bit of a ways off from a formal playoff appearance, but there is an outside chance they could be in the play-in conversation. On paper, they are more capable than Brooklyn and Washington, and it is no surprise that both are in the “sag for Flagg” sweepstakes. Depending on how things go in Chicago, they could also leapfrog the Bulls, who are in the midst of a retool after trading Caruso and losing DeRozan in free agency. Let’s also remember that Charlotte has been a lottery team for years and could be there again if injuries strike. That would put the Pistons in 11th or 12th seed off the rip and even higher if any teams suffer an unexpected drop off. It will all come down to the impact of Bickerstaff, how high Cunningham and Ivey rise, and how the new pieces perform. The goal for this team should be a 5-10 win total boost over last year at minimum, but obviously they have their sights set much higher after being so poor for so long. It will take some work, but DETROIT BASKETBALL could soon be something to be proud of again.
Indiana Pacers
2024-25 ranks:
Offense – 2nd (121.0)
Defense – 24th (118.0)
Net Rating – 10th (+3.0)
Weighted Age – 20th (25.3)
Historic offense and playoff run
Last season could not have gone much better for the Indiana Pacers. For much of the regular season, they were the best offense in the NBA, running at breakneck speeds and getting shots up like there was no tomorrow. The roster converged in incredible ways with guards providing stability and making smart decisions, the wings offering 3 & D abilities, and the bigs finishing their clean looks generated by the lightspeed pace of the offense. Check out these team ranks for the entire season:
Total Points: #1 (10,110)
Field Goals Made: #1 (3,855)
Field Goals Attempted: #1 (7,599)
Field Goal Percentage: #1 (50.7%)
Assists: #1 (2,522)
Pace: #2 (101.7)
Three Point Percentage: #9 (37.4%)
If you couldn’t tell by now, this team built their success on the ability to score quickly and efficiently every night. Seeing a final score in 140s or 150s was not uncommon. The ball was flying from player to the next, and that kept everyone involved, which led to career years from several players. On the other side of the ball, however, things weren’t so rosy. They had major problems keeping their opponents from getting good looks and they ended up finishing bottom ten in defensive efficiency. Most of their problems in that area stemmed from an inability to refrain from fouling, and securing defensive rebounds. Opposing teams often got second chances to score while the Pacers were in scramble mode and they were able to keep pace with plenty of free throws, one of the easiest shots in basketball. While this unfortunate reality held them back for much of the season, they did improve somewhat in the second half of the season due to the addition of multiple time All-Star, Pascal Siakam. While he is by no means a All-Defensive team level player, he was a substantial upgrade compared to the previous starting four, Obi Toppin. While Toppin does have solid size for the position and has seemingly limitless levels of athleticism at his disposal, he is not a great rebounder and his lateral quickness is lacking, which led to far too many breakdowns. By rounding out the roster with a complimentary star next to their All-NBA guard Haliburton, they were able to secure the 6th and bypass the Play-In Tournament. They didn’t make a quick cameo in the playoffs, either. They dispatched of the banged up Bucks in six games and the deteriorated Knicks in seven, before falling to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. It is easy to look at the state of their first two opponents and chalk it up to good luck that Indiana made it as far as they did, but either way, the Pacers should be applauded for what they were able to do with a roster that was not expected to advance as far as they did in the postseason.
Haliburton All-NBA pace
The primary engine for the Pacers’ historic offense was Tyrese Haliburton, who came into the season freshly crowned as the face of the franchise after signing what was originally a five year, $204 million maximum rookie extension. The total was later modified to become $260 million after Haliburton was selected to the All-NBA 3rd Team towards the end of the season. After beginning the season and a torrid pace, averaging an incredible 27 points per game and almost 12 assists per game on 51/44/88 shooting splits, he dropped off a bit due to a hamstring injury that initially flared up around the beginning of December and never really allowed Haliburton to get back to 100% health, even after missing 10 out of 11 games in the month of January. Despite this setback, he finished the season as the leading assist man in the league with almost 11 per game. While he does put additional pressure on the backend of the team’s defense due to his limitations as an on-ball defender he more than makes up for that with the way he masterfully gets the ball around the court, creates shots for himself as well as others, and knocks down jump shots at a high rate. There is a case to be made that he is one of the very best teammates in the NBA due to his joy of the game, the way he empowers others on the court. That much is certain. This coming season, he will need to prove that the 1st Team All-NBA pace he was on for the first 20 or so games last year is more than a flash in the pan. Peak Haliburton is without question one of the very best guards in the game and if he is consistently available, everyone else will be better for that.
Bringing back Toppin, Siakam, Nembhard, McConnell
Considering the highly productive seasons the team got out of utility players, bringing them back on new deals was not exactly a difficult decision. Obi Toppin, Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, and TJ McConnell were all awarded with new money during the offseason following the best season in recent Pacers history. Toppin got $58 million after posting career highs in points per game, rebounds per game, blocks per game, and almost every measurable shooting percentage. He held his own as a starter for 28 games, but truly found his niche as a energizing big off the bench who can screen and roll with the best of them, serve as an excellent vertical spacer, and knock down threes created by teammates like Halibutron. Toppin is not much of a creator, but he is a magnificent finisher and Indiana allows him to slot right into that role seamlessly. Siakam was highly likely to re-sign with the franchise right when the move was made to bring him in. He is a highly capable floor raiser who can operate in a variety of roles offensively, while holding his own against most forwards on the other end of the floor. He will cost a pretty penny over the next several years at $188 million, but it is well worth it for a franchise that prides itself on being competitive every season and is usually not a premiere free agent destination. Nehmhard got a large sum of money, considering the limited sample size under his belt to this point. It seems as though after starting about 100 games in two seasons and putting on a strong performance in the 2024 playoffs, management had seen enough and decided he was a good fit for the long-term next to Haliburton in the backcourt. McConnell has long been one of the more underrated guards in the association due to his steady ball handling and tenacious defense at the point of attack. He is undersized to be sure, but fights to overcome that in any way he can. His reward for a solid regular season and impressive series against the Knicks, specifically guarding Jalen Brunson was four years, $45 million. As we discussed during one of our offseason podcasts, it wasn’t the amount of money that he got that might have been a surprise, it was the amount of years given his age. It seems the Pacers protected themselves against a dropoff in his play though since they included non-guaranteed years in the deal. Given the age of most of these players, it is unlikely that any of them will experience huge upticks in play. Their appeal however, does not come from any expected upside, but the relatively low downside that they bring when they are in the game. They are all very consistent producers at this juncture, which should mean good things for the upcoming season of the team.
Where does Mathurin fit in?
One player who was not a part of the Pacers’ magical run last season was Bennedict Mathurin. After a strong rookie season where he solidified himself as a legitimate scoring force, his sequel season was cut short after just 59 appearances. That was a real shame, because he slightly improved his scoring averages across the board and started to make some progress in his attention to detail defensively, which has held him back from playing more minutes in the past. His role going forward is a bit more unclear now that Nembhard seems to be firmly entrenched as a starter going forward at the two and playing Mathurin at the 3 could leave them more vulnerable defensively than they would like. After the season Aaron Nesmith just had, he seems to be the more logical choice. He bounced around the league a bit before finally finding a home in Indiana with his two way contributions. Most nights, he is tasked with taking on the most difficult wing defensive assignments, while also hitting his open threes. He fulfilled both roles incredibly well and gained the trust of the coaching staff with the most minutes per game of his young career at 27.7. If the starting lineup does end up being Haliburton/Nembhard/Nesmith/Siakam/Turner, then Mathurin will probably have to make his living as a high octane bench scorer. That role seems to be an ideal fit for him, since he loves to look for his own shot. If he wants to be a captain of the second unit though, he will need to improve on the defensive end as mentioned before, but also as a distributor. He is prone to tunnel vision once he has the ball in his hands for a few seconds, so those are a couple of sticking points that will be under a microscope most of the way. Luckily, he should be flanked by McConnell and the improving Ben Sheppard, who can help cover for his weaknesses in both of those areas. The backcourt is somewhat crowded with all of these players deserving real minutes, but it is a good problem to have in the middle of a long season that will at some point result in some untimely injuries.
Ceiling for next season
The top of the east is quite competitive, which will make it difficult for the Pacers to rise any higher than they did last season. However, they will be formidable once again with their combination of offensive firepower, and depth. They are particularly deep at the guard and center positions. At center, the longest tenured Pacer, Myles Turner is back for another go, although his contractual status is somewhat in flux. Due to his renegotiation and extension a few years ago, he was eligible to be extended this year, so he will hit unrestricted free agency at the end of the 2025 season. In the meantime though, he will continue to operate as an elite pick and pop option for the Pacers. While Haliburton is the driver for the absurd scoring output of the team, those incredible heights would be much less obtainable without Turner. He commands a ton of respect on the perimeter, which often results in opposing big men being dragged out of the paint, giving other players free reign to attack the rim when they see an opportunity. On the other end, he brings an element of security to the backline with his knack for tracking down shots in mid air and sending them in the third row. As long as he is healthy, he unlocks a world of possibilities for Indiana. Isaiah should again be an elite energy big coming in behind Turner off the bench, and there is a wild card in the mix now with James Wiseman. Wiseman has bounced around quite a bit after being selected second overall by the Warriors in 2020, but he could see some real success with the Pacers. In theory, he could operate in much of the same ways that Turner does for the team. Wiseman has similar size and the foundation of a solid trail shooter. If he can wedge his way into the rotation, he has a great chance of revising his career. It is a BIG if though, considering how deep the team is already. Still, this could be his best chance at realizing some of the potential he displayed when he was coming into the NBA just a few years ago.
All of the pieces here could add up to another fun season that ends with a win total in the mid to upper forties, followed by an intriguing playoff stint. There aren’t many downsides to a roster that employs this much offensive talent and elite coaching with Rick Carlisle on the sidelines. However, it is tough to envision them knocking off the healthy juggernauts that surround them, like the Sixers, Celtics, Knicks, Bucks, and maybe even the Cavs or Magic. Once again, it might just depend on the luck of the draw once the playoffs begin. If they are able to play a certain opponent that is a better matchup for them, they could be headed for more epic performances in April and May.
Milwaukee Bucks
2024-25 ranks:
Offense – 6th (118.4)
Defense – 19th (115.8)
Net Rating – 12th (+2.6)
Weighted Age – 2nd (30.2)
Dreadful defense & 1st round out
The Bucks certainly had visions of greatness when they pulled off a blockbuster trade last year to acquire NBA Top 75 player of all-time Damian Lillard from the Portland Trail Blazers. Due to several reasons however, those visions did not come to pass and they instead suffered through a multitude of setbacks before finally falling at the hands of the Indiana Pacers, who were mentioned in the previous section. While the Pacers were a legitimate opponent, failing to get past them in the 1st round of the playoffs is a disappointment, to be sure. One reason the season was full of lows was due to the coaching structure that was set in place at the beginning of the season. Adrian Griffin was hired as a first time head coach and his record over 43 games was actually solid at 30-13, but there were questions both from players and management when it came to his ability to make the proper decisions on a night to night basis. Doc Rivers came in around the mid way point of the season, but the team actually fared worse with him in the driver’s seat, finishing below .500 the rest of the way at 17-19. These coaching deficiencies and the inclusion of Lillard in the starting lineup taking the place of Jrue Holiday contributed to a massive dropoff in defensive efficiency, which also doomed the team. After spending many seasons in the top ten or top in that area, that fell all the way to 19th last season. That is far too porous for a team with championship aspirations. While it may never reach the incredible heights of a couple seasons ago, the hope is that it will at least be respectable during year two of the Dame/Giannis experiment.
Growing pains between Giannis and Dame
That experiment was hit or miss the first time around. For some reason, the two did not run as many pick and rolls together as expected and they generally did not look all that comfortable together at times. Even worse, Lillard had one of the least effective and efficient seasons of his career. His three point percentage, and effective field goal percentage were clearly below his career averages and if he managed to turn in a good shooting game, it would be offset somewhat by high turnover totals. Both of these developments were clear signs that he had trouble acclimating to his new role as a number two player next to Giannis. On paper, the two are still a deadly duo due to Lillard’s ability to hit shots from the logo and Giannis’ propensity to attack the rim with reckless abandon, so getting on the same page should of paramount importance for them, as well as the rest of the team, as that could heavily influence how the team performs next season.
Middleton’s health
Giannis was just as deadly as he usually is last season, putting up absurd averages of 30.4 points per game, 11.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.1 blocks. He finished fourth in MVP voting, 9th in Defensive Player of the Year voting, got selected as an All-Star for the 7th straight season, and made his 6th straight All-NBA 1st Team. Yet somehow, it feels like the NBA public sometimes takes him for granted. Regardless of the truth of that recent statement, it is clear that the Bucks will be a threat to win it all, solely because the Greek Freak is on the roster. He has been a two way force for most of his career and will continue to be in 2024-25. We know what to expect from him, but the same can’t be said for his longtime running mate, Khris Middleton. Few would argue the fact that Middleton is a deadly wing scorer and decent defender, but he has not been on the court nearly enough in recent years to allow the Bucks to fully benefit from his special skills. He only appeared in 33 games two seasons ago and 55 last season. Milwaukee needs him on the court to serve as a bridge between the frontcourt and backcourt and give other players another release valve who can knock down tough shots in the face of great defense, or just when things are getting dicey in late game scenarios. His availability will once again be a huge question this season as the Bucks make another march towards a Finals run.
Savvy offseason pickups
Of course, a championship run involves more than just the stars. Milwaukee realized that they could use a bit more bite from the supporting cast, so they went out and got two solid veterans, Taurean Prince and Gary Trent Jr. for veteran minimums. The potential ROI for both of these acquisitions is very high, as Prince is a highly efficient shooter who can also play reasonable defense and attack the rim when given enough space. During his one year stint with the Lakers, he shot nearly 40% on threes and started 49 games. Los Angeles saw him as a very valuable contributor in their frontcourt, but there were just too many players there for him to get another good shot at minutes. Still, it is somewhat surprising that he was able to be had for such a low price, given his favorable archetype and prominent role for a playoff team. Gary Trent Jr. had been a steady starting two for the Raptors for multiple years, but no longer had a place on a team that was clearly transitioning to a younger core and seems headed for a losing season. Trent Jr. is also a valuable player, but overplayed his hand and had to settle for a one year proe-it deal with Milwaukee. While the deal is not totally reflective of what Trent can do on a basketball court, it has the potential to pay off for both parties. Trent can chase a more lucrative deal next year while still in his prime at age 26 if he performs well and the Bucks get plenty of support for their core in the process. He stands to be a much better fit than Malik Beasley was last year as well. Trent had more size to take on stout perimeter assignments and is almost as proficient of a shooter, sitting at 38% from deep in six career seasons so far. His play will go a long way towards bringing more cohesion among the starters and shore up weaknesses. Like Beasley, however, he is not exactly a huge threat once he puts the ball on the ground, so Lillard will once again need to bear the brunt of the responsibility of putting pressure on the rim, along with Giannis.
Thoughts on the youngsters AJ Johnson & Tyler Smith
The Bucks also had two draft picks in this most recent draft, which they used to bring in AJ Johnson in the first round and Tyler Smith in the first round. Both players have a lot of promise, but figure to spend much of it in the G League with the Wisconsin Herd refining their games. Smith has a very attractive skillset as a smooth shooting forward, but there are questions about his ability to get stops and attack the rim. I asked him specifically about that second point during this interview that we had with him earlier this year while he was still with the G League Ignite. Hopefully during his time in the G League, this year under a NBA team, he prioritizes getting more comfortable using his large frame to get physical with opposing players and crash the glass, as he will be called upon to offer those things if he gets called up to the Bucks at any point during the season. Hopefully he takes some time to learn from Bobby Portis, who is known for being a very aggressive player, who plays bigger than he is and can also space the floor quite well. AJ Johnson is a 6-5 guard who has plus athleticism and the length to disrupt actions on the perimeter. He didn’t have too much of an impact with playing for the Illawarra Hawks in the NBL Next Stars program last year, so he may have even more of a learning curve compared to Smith. Still, his development will be interesting to watch, especially as the years go by and the current foundational core of the Bucks begins to age out.
How much does Lopez have left in the tank?
Age has become a real concern when it comes to the future outlook for a long time man in the middle for Milwaukee, Brook Lopez. Lopez is coming up on his 17th season in the NBA believe it or not, but he is still expected to be a steady force inside for this team. Just two seasons ago, he finished as the runner up for the Defensive Player of the year award and was selected to the All-Defensive 1st Team. There is still a belief in the organization that Lopez can again be one of the best rim deterrents in the business and rain fire from the outside to give more breathing room for the creators on the team. If he cannot perform up to his usual standards, then the Bucks will be in real risk of suffering through another below average season. There is no other player on the roster at the current moment who can provide what he does, so his presence is extremely important. Portis is great as a smaller center, but his skillset is slanted more towards scoring than defending the rim. The team is currently in a very disadvantageous spot when it comes to money, but maybe they can swing a trade somewhere along the way to grab another center who can be similar to Lopez. With how smart the cap specialists are in certain organizations these days, nothing is ever truly out of the question when it comes to trades.
How much longer will this window of contention remain open for Giannis and the rest of the crew? Only time will tell, but tis season is a prime opportunity for them to make up for last season’s performance with more cohesion, better auxiliary support from the bench, a healthier Middleton, and a better Lillard. There are questions to answer, but you have to figure the best version of this team can put up a good fight against any opponent in the East, including the Celtics.
